Kickoff: November 4th, 2 pm CST
Location: Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos, Texas
Radio: AM1300/AM930/89.9 FM, 99.5 FM (Las Cruces)
Series Record: 2-2, NMSU is currently on a two game series win streak.
Betting Line: According to Odsshark, New Mexico State is a 10.5 point road favorite.
Last Meeting: New Mexico State won the last meeting between the two schools 50-10.
New Mexico State Preview
New Mexico State looks to get back on track after giving up another 4th quarter lead. Up 21-17, NMSU gave up 20 straight unanswered points to lose 37-21.
Overall, NMSU played well except for the fourth quarter. The defense forced seven sacks and kept Arkansas State’s offense in check for 45 minutes. Excessive pressure on Aggies QB Tyler Rogers led to a lot of forced throws and seven sacks, leading the offense to struggle to the tune of a season low 221 yards and 21 points.
The running game never got off the ground either with the team turning in less than 70 total yards among the running backs.
That all should change this Saturday as NMSU heads to San Marcos to take on the Texas State Bobcats. I think Roy Lopez and a fully healthy defensive line will shut down whatever rushing attack the Bobcats throw their way and that Dalton Herrington (16 tackles last Saturday, tying a career high) will be all over the place.
The Aggies are banged up on the offensive line and in the secondary a little bit but they should still be solid with a new center, left guard, safety and corner back.
Look for the offense to get back on track and toss the ball all over the field Saturday for their most wins since 2011 and in the Doug Martin era.
Prediction: New Mexico State 40, Texas State 21
Texas State Preview
A match up last week that resulted in a win against an FBS newbie that has put up residence in the cellar of the Sun Belt should not be slept on. A win is a win. Texas State hit season highs in almost all offensive categories. That’s mostly attributed to the play of the defense who themselves allowed a season low in total offensive yards and first downs allowed.
Linebacker Gabe Loyd and the rest of the defense will need to to be on point again against a potent New Mexico State attack. Loyd recorded four tackles including 2.5 that went for losses, a sack and a forced fumble and although his fellow ILB Bryan London didn’t put up any eye popping numbers against Coastal Carolina his presence is valuable. To be honest the numbers for the defense last week were not impressive besides Loyd and another linebacking standout Frankie Griffin but the most important stat was time of possession and the defense seemed to hardly play at all but of course that is a good thing. Ayo also no Coastal player has double digit rushing yards and there were seven players who tried. They will need that kind of performance to stop the Aggie rushing attack and force them to beat Texas State with the pass.
Offensively the ‘Cats had a resurgence recording a season high in both passing and rushing. The rushing especially was impressive choking out the Chanticleer defense killing both the clock and any momentum Coastal could muster. There were no primary Bobcat runners as the load was distributed between three running backs and two quarterbacks in a performance that Bobcat fans have been drooling for. The goal for Texas State against the Aggies is to punch out their lights and eyesight with a rushing attack that opens up the passing game.
Texas State showed the ESPN audience the teeth they can bear when given a chance and aggression is what the Bobcats will have to convey against a hostile Aggie offense. Speed is the object and based on the performance of quarterback Damian Williams should start and double up his performance because for Texas State to win Williams is going to have to take over the game and the rushing attack needs to duplicate last week and stomp out the defense.
Prediction: Texas State 32, New Mexico State 29