New Mexico State-Ole Miss
Start Time: 12:00 P.M. ET, Saturday, Oct. 10
Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Mississippi
TV: SEC Network
Records: New Mexico State 0-4, Ole Miss 4-1. This is the first meeting between these two programs.
Live Stats: here.
Betting Line: New Mexico State +43. Over/Under: 69.5.
New Mexico State Outlook: The Aggies will not look like the team many expected to see heading into the season. The main reason for that is the play of running back Larry Rose III (71/579/6TD). Rose III is spearheading a rushing attack that is the third most explosive in the nation with an IsoPPP of 1.49, .42 higher than the national average. The Aggies are successful on 47.5% of their rush attempts, but stuffed on 24.5%. There is an all or nothing aspect to the NMSU rushing attack.
The Aggies are one of the least efficient, yet most explosive passing teams in the nation. A 29.0% passing success rate is one of the worst in the country. Even worse for the passing game is an injury to quarterback Tyler Rogers (72-135/974/7TD) that will force him to miss this game. Nick Jeanty and Andrew Allen will split duties at quarterback, with the duo a combined 0-4 with an interception on the season. The Aggies have one of the better wide receivers that no one has heard of in Teldrick Morgan (16/264/2TD). Morgan and Tyrain Taylor (17/308/3TD) combine to be targeted on 45.2% of all pass attempts.
To put it nicely, NMSU is terrible on defense. They have given up 45.8 points per game and 544 yards per game in 2015. Running the football versus the Aggies has been no problem with the defense giving up 5.7 yards per carry while only stuffing the rush attempt on 15% of all run plays. Passing the ball is just as effective with the Aggies giving up 276 yards per game, and allowing a successful pass on 51.3% of all attempts. Overall, the Aggies will struggle to put up any resistance to Ole Miss.
Ole Miss Outlook: The Rebels come into this game mad and wanting to prove that their win over Alabama was not a fluke. The Ole Miss offense is one of the most explosive, IsoPPP of 1.45/#14 nationally, and best finishing, 6.03 points per trip inside the 40/#6 nationally, teams in the nation. Running the ball is a bit of a mixed bag for the Rebels with a success rate of 42.9% and a stuff rate of 23.8%. The stuff rate percentage is #105 in the FBS. Jaylen Walton (51/292/3TD) is the leading rusher for a run games that has four 100+ yard rushers. The run game for Ole Miss averages 1730 yards per game.
Chad Kelly (97-155/1,478/11TD) has been very good for a Rebels passing game that is #4 in passing S&P+, #24 in success rate. And #14 in IsoPPP. Kelly’s favorite target is junior Laquon Treadwell (27/374/1TD). Treadwell, with 44 targets, has been 25.4% of all pass attempts head his way. There is worry that Kelly is forcing the ball to Treadwell too often as evidenced by a 61.4% catch rate. Senior Cody Core (16/335/3TD) is the big play threat for Ole Miss with a 20.9 yards per catch average. Overall, the Rebels are in the top 12 nationally in all four quarters S&P+, meaning they are able to move the ball at will versus most teams.
Facing three SEC opponents so far in 2015, the Ole Miss defense has been able to keep opponents from driving inside their 40 yard line. They are holding offenses to only 3.71 yards per trip inside the 40. The key to defensive success for Ole Miss is stopping the run game. Overall, teams are only rushing for 3.4 yards per carry versus the Rebels. Offenses are only successful on 33.6% of all rushing attempts, with a 24.2% stuff rate. Teams have been a little more successful, at 40.5% passing versus the Rebels, but the pass defense is doing an excellent job at stopping explosive plays from happening. Offenses are averaging only 216.0 yards in the air versus Ole Miss.
Prediction: This one will get ugly fast. Ole Miss has the ability to put up 70 points and they probably will. Ole Miss 73, New Mexico 14.