Underdog Dynasty - Week 5 Underdog PreviewsAn unofficial The American, Conference USA, Sun Belt, and Independent football bloghttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52546/ud_favicon.png2015-10-02T22:00:02-04:00http://www.underdogdynasty.com/rss/stream/92006462015-10-02T22:00:02-04:002015-10-02T22:00:02-04:00New Mexico State Looks To Upend Rival New Mexico
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<figcaption>Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>In the battle of New Mexico, the Aggies look for their first win of the season in a road trip to heated rival New Mexico.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b>New Mexico State-New Mexico</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span><b>Start Time: </b>8:00 P.M. ET, Saturday, Oct. 3<b></b><p></p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span><b>Location: </b>University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico<b></b><p></p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span><b>TV: </b>Root Sports<b></b><p></p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span><b>Streaming: </b>N/A<b></b><p></p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span>Radio: </span><span>New Mexico State</span></b><b><span>: </span></b><a href="http://www.nmstatesports.com/showcase">here</a><b><span>. </span><span>New Mexico</span></b><b><span>: </span></b><a href="http://golobos.com/watch/">here</a><b><span>.<p></p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span><b>Records: </b></span><span>New Mexico State</span> <span>0-3, </span><span>New Mexico</span> <span>2-2. New Mexico leads the overall series 69-31-5.<b></b><p></p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span>Live Stats: </span></b><a href="http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=94631">here</a><b><span>.<p></p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span><b>Betting Line: </b>New Mexico State +12.5. Over/Under: 69.<b></b><p></p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span>New Mexico State</span> </b><span><b>Outlook:</b> NMSU is #4 nationally with an IsoPPP of 1.58. The Aggies also score 5.11 points per trip inside the 40 and have turnover luck of +5.52 points per game. Behind the rushing of sophomore Larry Rose III (50/319/3TD), the Aggies are in the top 50 in nearly every rushing advanced statistic. The Aggies are averaging 137.3 yards per game on the ground.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>Passing the football has been an all or nothing endeavor with one of the worst efficiency ratings, but one of the most explosive IsoPPP ratings in the nation. Quarterback Tyler Rogers (60-111/866/7TD) has to improve on his accuracy. His favorite target is junior receiver <span>Teldrick Morgan</span> (13/249/2TD). Tyrain Taylor (14/264/3TD) has a solid catch rate at 63.6%, but no receiver on the team has a catch rate of 67% or higher. Overall, the Aggies are averaging 286.0 yards per game in the air.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>NMSU is not good at all on the defensive side of the ball. Offenses are successful on 49.3% of all plays, ranking the Aggies at #119 nationally, nearly 9% higher than the national average. The Aggies are also giving up 5.37 points per trip inside the 40 yard line. The Aggies are dreadful versus the run game with offenses able to break off big runs regularly. NMSU is giving up 234.3 yards per game on the ground with a 5.32 yards per carry average. The pass defense is giving up a successful passing play on an astounding 57.8% of all plays. The Aggies are giving up 342.3 yards per game in the air.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>Players to watch for on the NMSU defense include: <span>Jaden Wright</span> (33 tkl, 1 INT), <span>Derek Ibekwe</span> (22 tkl, 1 tfl), <span>Rodney Butler</span> (22 tkl, 3 tfl, 1 sack), and Terrill Hanks (21 tkl, 1 tfl, 1 sack).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span>New Mexico</span> </b><span><b>Outlook: </b>The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/new-mexico-lobos">Lobos</a> are the #33 most explosive offense in the nation, despite a predominant rushing attack. UNM averages 5.19 points per trip inside the 40 yard line and average starting on the 32.5 yard line. New Mexico’s turnover luck is in the positive at +3.45 points per game.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>The rush offense is successful on only 44.9% of their plays. Even with a lower than expected success rate, the Lobos are surviving with one of the most explosive running games in the nation. Running back <span>Jhurell Pressley</span> (57/253/1TD) and quarterback <span>Lamar Jordan</span> (36/278/1TD) lead a rushing offense that has four 100+ yard rushers on the season. As a whole, the offense is averaging 262.3 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry on the season.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>The Lobos are not good passing the football and rarely successful with a 31.4% success rate. Quarterback Lamar Jordan (24-40/373/2TD) is connecting on passes at a 60% rate, but only three players on the team have five or more catches on the season. <span>Dameon Gamblin</span> (15/230/1TD), <span>Carlos Wiggins</span> (6/140/1TD), and Delane Hart-Johnson (5/36/0TD) have been targeted on 55.4% of all pass attempts.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>New Mexico’s defense has a lot to be desired so far this season, but have been greatly helped by a special teams that has forced opponents to start on their own 25.8 yard line. The Lobos have one of the better defenses in the nation at stopping third or fourth and short. The rush defense is only giving up 119.8 yards per game on the ground. Many times, third down conversions are coming in the air, rather than on the ground. UNM is among the bottom 31 in defensive S&P+, success rate, and IsoPPP. The defense is giving up 263.0 yards per game in the air, as well as 8.4 yards per pass attempt. Overall, the Lobos are giving up 382.8 yards per game of total offense.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>Players to watch out for on the New Mexico defense include: <span>Kimmie Carson</span> (31 tkl, 4.5 tfl, 1.5 sacks), <span>Dakota Cox</span> (30 tkl, 4.5 tfl, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT), and Maurice Daniels (17 tkl, 4.5 tfl, 2.5 sacks).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span><b>Prediction: </b>New Mexico is nearly a ten point favorite according to advanced statistics. The Aggies currently are looking at a 28% win probability. New Mexico should not encounter any issues running the football. The Aggies will score at least 25 points, but that total will not be enough in falling to the Lobos. New Mexico 38, New Mexico State 28.<p></p></span></p>
https://www.underdogdynasty.com/sun-belt-conference/2015/10/2/9440309/new-mexico-state-aggies-vs-new-mexico-lobos-preview-tv-streamingJeremy Adcock2015-10-02T21:00:01-04:002015-10-02T21:00:01-04:00MTSU Looks For Homecoming Win Versus Vanderbilt
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<figcaption>Mike Granse-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Homecoming for the Blue Raiders means a visit from an SEC program just down the road. This game should be close, but how will it turn out?</p> <p><b>MTSU-Vandy </b></p>
<p><b>Start Time: </b>7:00 P.M. ET, Saturday, Oct. 3</p>
<p><b>Location:</b> Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, Tennessee</p>
<p><b>TV: </b>CBSSN Streaming:</p>
<p><b>Radio:</b> MTSU: <a href="http://www.goblueraiders.com/watch/%20">here</a>. Vanderbilt: <a href="http://www.wlac.com/main.html">here</a>.</p>
<p><b>Records: </b>MTSU 2-2, Vanderbilt 1-3. Vanderbilt leads the overall series 12-3.</p>
<p><b>Live Stats:</b> <b>here</b>.</p>
<p><b>Betting Line: </b>MTSU -1.5. Over/Under: 50.</p>
<p><b>MTSU Outlook:</b> The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/middle-tenn-st-blue-raiders">Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders</a> have been explosive on offense with an IsoPPP of 1.44. Special teams have been excellent with the offense starting on the 33 yard line. The Blue Raiders are also one of the best at finishing drives, earning 5.56 points per trip inside the 40.</p>
<p>The running game, averaging 161.5 yards per game, is successful on only 42.6% of all rushing attempts. Even when gaining positive yards, the run game is one of the worst in the nation in making explosive plays. Running backs <span>Jordan Parker</span> (61/305/4TD) <span>Shane Tucker</span> (38/115/0TD) are steady backs, but do not show the ability to make long runs on a regular basis in this offense.</p>
<p>Passing the ball is completely different with the Blue Raiders holding an IsoPPP of 1.89 in the passing game. The biggest issue in the passing game is a success rate of only 40.7%. <span>Brent Stockstill</span> (98-141/1221/12TD) took over the quarterback position in the offseason and has looked very good with a 69.5% completion rate and over 1200 yards passing. His favorite targets are Ed’Marques Batties (30/446/7TD) and <span>Richie James</span> (34/352/1TD). Combined, the rest of the team has only been targeted 43 total times on the year. MTSU is averaging 315.2 total passing yards per game.</p>
<p>MTSU has struggled versus the run game so far this season. Offenses are successful on 40.6% of all offensive plays, but that number jumps to 50.0% on running plays. Even with poor numbers versus the run, MTSU is only giving up 120.5 yards on the ground per game. Opponents have ran the ball on only 41.5% of standard downs and 23.1% of all passing downs this season. Overall, the Blue Raiders are giving up 230.8 yards passing in the air per game.</p>
<p>Linebackers TT Barber (27 tkl, 4 tfl, 2 sacks) and <span>Cavellis Luckett</span> (21 tkl, 1 tfl), as well as safety <span>Kevin Byard</span> (20.5 tkl, 1 tfl, 1 INT) are players to watch on defense.</p>
<p><b>Vanderbilt Outlook: </b>The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.anchorofgold.com/">Commodores</a> are one of the worst in the nation in turnover luck at -6.15 ppg. Vanderbilt is the worst team in the nation at finishing drives. The offense is only scoring 2.87 points per trip inside the 40 yard line. Special teams have helped the offense with drives starting the 33 yard line on average. With an S&P+ of 79.6 and a success rate of 28.2%, Vanderbilt is one of the least successful but most explosive teams in the nation running the football. Much of that is due to the running ability of quarterback Johnny McCrary. Ralph Webb (83/282/2TD) <span>Dallas Rivers</span> (30/64/1TD) have yet to prove they are SEC caliber backs on a regular basis.</p>
<p>The Vanderbilt passing game has shown significant improvement with the improved play of wide receiver Trent Shefield (28/402/2TD). Sherfield is being targeted on 25.5% of all pass plays with a catch rate of 70% on 40 targets. Quarterback Johnny McCrary (93-159/1074/5TD) has an overall completion rate of 58.5%, a number that must improve soon.</p>
<p>Facing some very good running games to start the season, Vanderbilt has been able to hold their own with a success rate of 38.6% and a rush defense success rate of 37.1%. The number that stands out the most is a stuff rate of 29.9%, good for eighth nationally. In the passing game, the Commodores have really excelled. With a pass defense S&P+ of 156.3 and an IsoPPP of 1.27, Vanderbilt does not give up big plays in the passing game. That is an excellent trait in a defense, forcing offenses to play mistake free football on long drives. Many times, the Commodores can benefit from an offensive mistake and get off the field. Players to watch on the Vanderbilt defense include: <span>Oren Burks</span> (22 tkl, 1.5 tfl, 1 INT), <span>Darreon Herring</span> (22 tkl, 0.5 tfl), <span>Zach Cunningham</span> (20 tkl, 1.5 tfl, 1 sack), and <span>Tre Herndon</span> (18 tkl, 1 tfl, 1 sack). Prediction: It is quite the bold move to schedule an SEC foe as a homecoming opponent. MTSU did just that in scheduling Vanderbilt for their 2015 homecoming opponent. This game should be one of the closest of week five with the two teams point margin at 0.3 points. MTSU is the slight favorite with a 51% win probability. Despite the Blue Raiders playing this game at home and becoming slight favorites, I feel that the Vanderbilt offense finally gets it done and pulls out a win. Vanderbilt 26, MTSU 23.</p>
https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/10/2/9440159/mtsu-blue-raiders-vs-vanderbilt-commodores-preview-tv-streaming-startJeremy Adcock2015-10-02T20:00:02-04:002015-10-02T20:00:02-04:00North Texas vs. Southern Miss, Who Rebuilt Faster?
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<figcaption>Southern Miss tangles with North Texas in the 2014 match-up in Denton, a 30-20 victory for the Golden Eagles. | Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>North Texas heads to Hattiesburg, where two teams in their rebuilding phase clash in what can only be described as the most important game of the season. Too much pressure?</p> <p class="pgh-paragraph" id="paragraph0"><b>Start Time</b>: 7:00 pm CST, Saturday, Oct. 3</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph" id="paragraph1"><b>Location</b>: M.M. Roberts Stadium, aka "The Rock," Hattiesburg, MS</p>
<p id="paragraph2" class="pgh-paragraph"><b>TV</b>: Local Markets/Fox College Sports</p>
<p id="paragraph3" class="pgh-paragraph"><b>Streaming</b>: <a href="http://www.foxsports.com/foxsportsgo/">here</a>.</p>
<p id="paragraph4" class="pgh-paragraph"><b>Radio</b>: Southern Miss: <a href="http://www.southernmiss.com/collegesportslive/?media=502591">here</a>. North Texas: <a href="http://www.khyi.com/">here</a>.</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph" id="paragraph5"><b>Series Record</b>: Southern Miss leads the all-time series 4-3, including a 31-10 victory in the 2004 New Orleans Bowl.</p>
<p id="paragraph6" class="pgh-paragraph"><b>Live Stats</b>: <a href="http://www.meangreensports.com/gametracker/launch/gt_mfootbl.html?event=1415383&school=ntex&sport=mfootbl&camefrom=&startschool=&">here</a>.</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph" id="paragraph7"><b>Betting Line</b>: Southern Miss -13.5, O/U 110</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph"> </p>
<h3><b>North Texas Preview:</b></h3>
<p class="pgh-paragraph">Sigh.</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph">We tried being polite last week, and it didn't work. North Texas showed virtually no signs of life against Iowa, submitting in grotesque fashion and trudging home with a 62-16 loss. To their credit, this was an expected loss against a Power Five conference, so as much as we'd love to start calling for someone's head, that time is not now. No, that time is for the fourth quarter against Southern Miss, a team which maintained the success for 50 years that UNT only managed to sustain from 2001-2004.</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph">Iowa or no, QB Andrew McNulty's completion percentage dropped back down below 50%, after barely creeping over against Rice. If we use the Rice game as a high point (the only game in which UNT has been competitive all year), leading rusher <span>Antoinne Jimmerson</span> carried the ball <b>13 times </b>for a paltry<b> 94 yards,</b> and only one receiver could manage over 70 yards.</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph">As much as I'd love to stick a fork in the 2015 squad-- as damning as 0-3 seems--Southern Miss is just not as good of a team as Rice. They are rebuilding (as are the <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/north-texas-eagles" class="sbn-auto-link">Mean Green</a>), and have seen progress each year under Todd Monken (as opposed to UNT, who progressed for one year then have been backsliding ever since). If any of the things we've written about UNT are true this season, this is the game in which we will finally see them, as they roll up on a team with whom they're slightly more evenly matched than the <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/rice-owls" class="sbn-auto-link">Rice Owls</a>.</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph">Alternatively, if North Texas gets blown out, or even fails to cover, then they're going 0-12 and no amount of <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanRentfro72/status/647974950335188992">internet whinging</a> is going to prevent that.</p>
<h3><b>Southern Miss Preview:</b></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>When looking at Southern Miss’ offense, expect lots of explosive plays. They are sixth in the nation in IsoPPP, a statistic that measures how explosive an offense is on positive plays. Running the football, the IsoPPP drops slightly to 1.23, but that number is still good for #17 in the nation. <span>Jalen Richard</span> (62/344/4TD) and <span>Ito Smith</span> (36/281/1TD) lead the way on a rushing attack that is averaging 158.0 yards per game on the ground.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>Despite not being as efficient as they could be, the <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/southern-miss-golden-eagles" class="sbn-auto-link">Golden Eagles</a> passing attack is also in the top 20 nationally in IsoPPP at 1.78. Junior quarterback <span>Nick Mullens</span> (97-152/1366/10TD) is a main reason for the explosiveness of the passing game. <span>Casey Martin</span> (25/303/4TD) has a catch rate of 86.2% while being targeted on 20.3% of all passes on the season. DJ Thompson (14/231/2TD) and <span>Mike Thomas</span> (11/181/0TD) have not been as lucky with 25 total catches on 47 passes thrown their way. Overall, Southern Miss is averaging 341.5 yards per game in the air.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>As bad as Southern Miss has looked on defense in certain games, much of their overall problem is the inability to keep explosive plays from happening. TRush defense is a huge culprit. The Golden Eagles have an excellent success rate versus the running game with the offense only successful on 38.7% of rush attempts. A stuff rate of 24.3% supports that claim. Those statistics go for naught as the rush IsoPPP is 1.62, good for #127 nationally. Versus the pass, Southern Miss is very good at stopping successful plays at 38.7%, the same number as the rush success rate. Opponents are averaging 252.0 yards per game in the air versus the Southern Miss defense.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>Players to watch for on the Southern Miss defense include: safety D’Nerius Antoine (25tkl, 3 tfl, 1 INT, 2 ff), <span>Brian Anderson</span> (19 tkl, 3.5 tfl, 0.5 sacks), and <span>Dylan Bradley</span> (16 tkl, 6 tfl, 3 sacks).</span></p>
<h3><b>Adam's Prediction:</b></h3>
<p class="pgh-paragraph">I am just cynical enough to where I do not see McCarney turning this around. I don't see a very high scoring game, but Southern Miss winning by 3 touchdowns would not surprise me. As stated above, I'm not ready to pull the plug on this team yet, but a loss this week would certainly be consistent.</p>
<h3><span><b>Jeremy's Prediction: </b></span></h3>
<p class="pgh-paragraph"><span>The Golden Eagles are playing very good football at this moment, especially on offense. The Mean Green will struggle to stop the passing game from Mullens and company, but will also have to contend with a solid running game. North Texas will move the ball on offense and score some points, but the Golden Eagles will be able to score at a higher rate. Southern Miss 41, North Texas 24.</span></p>
https://www.underdogdynasty.com/conference-usa/2015/10/2/9437973/north-texas-mean-green-vs-southern-miss-golden-eagles-preview-tvNo Sleep Til DentonJeremy Adcock2015-10-02T19:40:17-04:002015-10-02T19:40:17-04:00Battle For The Belt: Round One Preview
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<p>Saturday marks round one of the Battle For The Belt. Here is everything you need to know heading into the matchup.</p> <p><b>Start time:</b> 6:00 PM CT</p>
<p><b>Location:</b> Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, Alabama</p>
<p><b>TV:</b> ESPN3</p>
<p><b>Stream:</b> WatchESPN.com, WatchESPN app</p>
<p><b>Betting line:</b> Troy -7.0. Over/Under: 61.5</p>
<p><b>Rivalry history: </b></p>
<p><b></b>Series: Troy leads 2-1 - In Mobile 1-1, Troy 1-0</p>
<p>First met: Sept 29 2012 - Troy won 31-0</p>
<p>Last meeting: Oct 24 2014 South won 27-13</p>
<p> </p>
<p>The most anticipated Troy-South Alabama matchup ever starts at 6 p.m. tomorrow, and it would be a sin to miss it. The two teams will be playing for a <a href="http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/9/29/9419093/troy-south-alabama-spice-up-rivalry-game" target="_blank">FREAKING BELT</a>, and coaches, players and fans on both sides of the rivalry are even more excited for this year's game than ever before.</p>
<p>Here is breakdown of each side of the contest from South Alabama writer Alyssa Newton and Troy writer Jacob Young.</p>
<p><b><a href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/south-alabama-jaguars" class="sbn-auto-link">South Alabama Jaguars</a></b></p>
<p>South Alabama is coming off 50-point loss to NC State last week as the Jags were ran over at home 63-13.</p>
<p>Keys to winning:</p>
<p>Ball security: In every game besides San Diego State, South Alabama has turned the ball over three times in each contest. Although in the Jags' opener against Gardner-Webb the Bulldogs were not able to capitalize, all six turnovers against Nebraska, NC State turned into scoring drives.</p>
<p>Break the daze, D: Last week safety and team captain <span>Roman Buchanan</span> was at a loss for words after the NC State loss. "I have to figure out what to tell my teammates," he said in the postgame interviews. South Alabama's defense has to shake off last week's loss and really show up against the Trojans. No more deer in the headlights, which it shouldn't be bad going into the first conference game of the year.</p>
<p>Stop the run: Although Coach Brown is known for his air strikes, South Alabama head coach <span>Joey Jones</span> is focused on the Jags stopping the run, something they've struggled with all season. The Jags have allowed 226 yards per game, but they will have some extra help as two of the Jags top defensive ends come back from injury - <span>Akeem Lewis</span> and <span>Dewayne Alford</span>.</p>
<p>South needs good mix on the ground, big plays: South Alabama needs to come out strong in this contest against the Trojans. The Jags need to move the ball well on the ground, something the Jags did well two weeks ago in their win over San Diego State. Big plays will be a key, especially finding speedy receiver <span>Josh Magee</span> behind the secondary and Garald Everett to use his size and strength. There's bound to be some deep balls flying.</p>
<p>Prediction: South Alabama wins 34-27</p>
<p><b><a href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/troy-trojans" class="sbn-auto-link">Troy Trojans</a></b></p>
<p>The Troy Trojans are coming off of a bye week, but put up a relatively respectable performance against the <a href="https://www.buckys5thquarter.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Wisconsin Badgers</a> in their previous game, losing by a final of 28-3.</p>
<p>Keys to winning:</p>
<p>Let <span>Brandon Silvers</span> loose: I've said this time-after-time, but it remains true. Despite being very efficient and making good reads in the pocket, sophomore quarterback Brandon Silvers has yet to be given a chance to put his abilities on full display. Troy needs to give Silvers the chance to throw the ball early and often against a Jaguar defense that has had its struggles against the pass.</p>
<p>Effective runs: While the coaching staff needs to go with a pass-heavy game plan, the Trojan run game can't be overlooked. The team has done a poor job of establishing a consistent run game, and after an extra week of practice, that needs to change. The backs will get fewer carries if Troy opts to let Silvers test the defense, but the team needs a high yards per carry average from its backfield.</p>
<p>Put the ball in the end zone: Obviously, the goal of every offensive possession is to move the ball down the field and score a touchdown. Troy has done the first part of that well, but they have seen many drives come to a halt after reaching opponent territory. You can't win if you don't score, and field goals aren't gonna cut it on Saturday. The South Alabama defense has allowed 40.2 points per game, so Troy has no excuses for not putting up six on at least several occasions.</p>
<p>Prediction: Troy wins 41-27</p>
https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/10/2/9442747/south-alabama-jaguars-at-troy-trojans-preview-start-time-tv-streamingJacobYoungAlyssaNewtonUSA2015-10-02T19:00:02-04:002015-10-02T19:00:02-04:00UTSA Makes a Business Trip to El Paso
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<img alt="Jarveon Williams has been money for the Roadrunners this season" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/36tyEdkg-PM2K5tYIHc9YeD5opk=/0x0:4149x2766/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/47315436/usa-today-8795375.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jarveon Williams has been money for the Roadrunners this season | Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Early season woes for both programs set the stage for the third installment of a young rivalry.</p> <p class="pgh-paragraph" id="paragraph0"><b>Start Time</b>: 7:00 pm CST, Saturday, Oct. 3</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph" id="paragraph1"><b>Location</b>: Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph"><b>TV</b>: Local Markets</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph"><b>Streaming</b>: <a href="http://www.utepathletics.com/collegesportslive/?media=502862">MinerTV</a></p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph"><b>Radio</b>: <a data-ref-index="9" href="http://www.iheart.com/live/ticket-760-2353/">Ticket 760</a></p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph" id="paragraph5"><b>Series Record</b>: Tied 1 - 1</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph"><b>Live Stats</b>: <a href="http://www.goutsa.com/liveStats/liveStats.dbml?SPSID=315549&SPID=34919&DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=13100">Link</a></p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph" id="paragraph7"><b>Betting Line</b>: UTSA - 3.5, O/U 57.5</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph"><b>Views from Stillwater: <a href="http://www.minerrush.com/">Miner Rush</a> </b><span>(SB Nation)</span></p>
<p id="paragraph9" class="pgh-paragraph"><b>The Rivalry</b>: Is this a rivalry game? Nearly everyone you ask on both sides will provide a differing opinion. UTSA shocked the Miners in 2013 after starting off their CUSA era by trouncing UTEP in the Sunbowl 32-13. It was a huge win for the Roadrunners in a season full of surprises.</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph">What little bragging rights UTSA had were quickly robbed away in 2014. Down to their third-string quarterback, UTSA turned in one of the most <a href="http://espn.go.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=400548060">hapless offensive performances</a> I've ever seen last season. <span>Austin Robinson</span> averaged 1.6 yards per passing attempt and failed to lead the offense to a single score. The Roadrunners didn't even cross midfield until the twilight of the game.</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph">The athletic departments may not officially recognize this series as a true rivalry but there's little doubt that UTEP players had a sour taste in their mouth after the 2013 loss. I haven't really heard it mentioned in interviews but you've got to assume the returners from UTSA's 2014 embarrassment are itching to deliver some payback this season during the Miners' homecoming weekend.</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph"><b>The Opponent</b>: UTEP comes into this game struggling with injuries. All-conference running back <span>Aaron Jones</span> looked primed to compete for CUSA Player of the Year honors before suffering a severe ankle injury against Texas Tech. The injury bug wasn't just limited to Jones-- starting quarterback <span>Mack Leftwich</span> is also doubtful for this week's conference per concussion protocol. The Miners are also missing several reserve players.</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph">With so many players out with injuries, it's going to take a momentous effort, motivated hustle, and superior coaching for the Miners to come out victorious.</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph"><span>Ryan Metz</span> has stepped in behind Leftwich and has given the Miners a new edge on offense. Metz has pocket-passing size and an arm that Leftwich can't match. When given an opportunity to air it out, Metz has been proficient throwing deep. Thus far the UTEP coaching staff has only given him that opportunity when the Miners fall behind in the contest. Sean Kugler will need to take a more aggressive approach on Saturday to keep UTSA's offense from pinning their ears back to stop the run.</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph"><b>UTSA</b>: Larry Coker will finally get to play a game this season with most of his cards in his hand. Starting middle linebacker <span>Drew Douglas</span>, starting defensive end <span>Marcus Davenport</span>, starting cornerback <span>Trevor Baker</span>, and starting center/right tackle <span>Juan Perez</span> have all been cleared to play, providing UTSA with many more options even if some of those guys are limited.</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph">Those injuries are the byproduct of a laughably-difficult out of conference schedule that saw UTSA face four teams that will assuredly go bowling this winter. A few other guys are expected out (<span>Kenny Bias</span>, <span>Mauricio Sanchez</span>, <span>Chase Dahlquist</span>), but it will be the healthiest the Roadrunners have been since the first week of the season.</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph">UTSA's running game is seeing a resurgence of sorts behind the speed of <span>Jarveon Williams</span> and Jalen Rhodes. Williams recently set program records for the longest run from scrimmage and most rushing yards in one game against Colorado State. Williams turned a simple off-tackle stretch up the field for 80+ yards after out-running the Rams' defense. The spark that Williams provides brings UTSA some much needed explosiveness as the Roadrunners settle in to their new up-tempo offense.</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph"><b>Prediction</b>: While both teams have faced struggles over the season, it feels like UTSA's worst days are past them. They're healthier and finally out of the hellish quarter of their schedule. Meanwhile UTEP has failed to replace <span>Aaron Jones</span>' production in the backfield and are still forming a new identity under Metz. The only area where I could see UTEP having enough success to win this game is if they are able to exploit UTSA's young secondary. The Roadrunners are giving up some big plays through the air due to poor communication between zone defenders and a negligent pass rush. All things considered, I like UTSA's chances to move the ball effectively against the Miners and settle into a comfortable late lead despite some scares from Metz.</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph"><b>UTSA </b>35 <b>UTEP </b>17</p>
https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/10/2/9434119/utsa-roadrunners-vs-utep-miners-preview-tv-streaming-start-timeJared Kalmus2015-10-02T18:00:02-04:002015-10-02T18:00:02-04:00East Carolina And SMU Face Off In AAC Matchup
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<figcaption>James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The Pirates look to even their record to 1-1 in conference play, while SMU opens their conference slate in this week five matchup.</p> <p><b>East Carolina-SMU </b></p>
<p><b>Start Time:</b> 4:00 P.M. ET, Saturday, Oct. 3</p>
<p><b>Location: </b>Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, Texas</p>
<p><b>TV:</b> ESPN News</p>
<p><b> Streaming:</b> WatchESPN</p>
<p><b>Radio:</b> East Carolina: <a href="http://www.ecupirates.com/collegesportslive/?media=500865">here</a>. SMU: <a href="http://player.streamtheworld.com/_players/citadel/?sid=4224">here</a>.</p>
<p><b>Records: </b>East Carolina 2-2, SMU 1-3. East Carolina leads the overall series 3-2.</p>
<p><b>Live Stats: </b><a href="http://www.smumustangs.com/gametracker/launch/gt_mfootbl.html?event=1416921&school=smu&sport=mfootbl&camefrom=&startschool=&">here</a><b>.</b></p>
<p><b>Betting Line:</b> East Carolina -5.5. Over/Under: 67.</p>
<p><b>East Carolina Outlook:</b> The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/east-carolina-pirates">Pirates</a> are coming off of an upset win over Virginia Tech that completely threw their offensive philosophy on its head. The Pirates have been an Air Raid offense that throws the ball nearly all the time. Due to rain, ECU switched quarterbacks and realized that with <span>James Summers</span>, they can run the football. With Blake Kemp, they are basically tied down to a pass happy offense. Since that game, the Pirates have decided to try a two quarterback system that is supposed to bring out the good of both quarterbacks.</p>
<p>The biggest beneficiary of the offensive change is <span>Chris Hairston</span> (60/210/4TD). The senior running back should be able to find more space to run the football with defenses forced to dedicate time to both types of offenses. Expect more explosion from a running game that already has an IsoPPP that is #34 nationally. Receiver Isaiah Jones (32/397/2TD) and tight end <span>Bryce Williams</span> (19/182/3TD) may see a slight drop in targets, but only due to more carries by the running game. Overall, the Pirates are averaging nearly 400 total yards, and will soon find out if these changes are for the good.</p>
<p>Defense has been a mess for ECU with the front seven unable to keep offenses off schedule. Offenses are successful on 46.0% of all plays, 49.2% when rushing, 40.0% when passing. The Pirates did better versus Virginia Tech’s run game, but have been unable to stop strong running games in good weather this season. It will be an interesting matchup as SMU is rushing for 220.5 yards per game. ECU has a good secondary that is giving up just under 200 yards per game in the air.</p>
<p>Players to look out for on the ECU defense include: <span>Zeek Bigger</span> (34 tkl, 1 tfl), <span>Jordan Williams</span> (34 tkl, 3 tfl, 2 sacks), and <span>Josh Hawkins</span> (15 tkl, 1 INT).</p>
<p><b>SMU Outlook: </b>The Mustangs are a steadily improving offense under the new coaching staff, but are not where they want to be quite yet. Led by quarterback <span>Matt Davis</span> (61/458/4TD), the running game has been a nice surprise. <span>Xavier Jones</span> (55/239/2TD) and Braeden West (35/181/0TD) have stepped up well in the run game. Overall the Mustangs are rushing for 220.5 yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry.</p>
<p>Passing the ball has been much more of an adventure with Davis (69-109/933/6TD) on the run quite a bit. <span>Courtland Sutton</span> (17/399/5TD), <span>Ryheem Malone</span> (11/137/0TD), and Xavier Jones (11/65/0TD) are combining to be targeted for for 52.8% of all passing attempts by Davis. Among receivers with 6+ targets, only Jones has a catch rate of over 75%. Overall, the Mustangs are passing for 233.2 yards per game.</p>
<p>When you give up 43.3 points per game, it is very clear that the defense is struggling. Offenses are successful on 51.9% of all offensive plays, 56.9% when rushing, 46.0% when passing. The Mustangs #91 or worse in six of the seven rushing advanced statistics, capped by a pitiful 13.3% stuff rate, over 5% below the national average. The defense is giving up 279.5 yards per game on the ground. Versus the pass, SMU may actually be even worse. S&P+, success rate, and IsoPPP all have the Mustangs ranked #104 or worse. The defense is giving up 323.5 yards per game and 10.0 yards per pass attempt on the season. Overall, SMU is giving up 603.0 yards per game this season.</p>
<p><b> Prediction: </b>Despite a 1-3 record, SMU has looked like a better team than last season, but until they find some sort of solution on defense, they will find it hard to win in the AAC. East Carolina, left for dead by many after the Navy game, have new life and new hope heading into this game. The two quarterback system should work well versus the poor defense of SMU, and ECU should be able to score at will. Expect both teams to put up some points, but East Carolina wins comfortably. East Carolina 45, SMU 24.</p>
https://www.underdogdynasty.com/american-athletic-conference/2015/10/2/9440547/east-carolina-pirates-vs-southern-methodist-mustangs-preview-tvJeremy Adcock2015-10-02T17:30:02-04:002015-10-02T17:30:02-04:00Navy vs. Air Force: CIC, MWC, AAC
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<figcaption>Win McNamee/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Navy Midshipmen welcome the Air Force Falcons to Annapolis this weekend for the first leg of the Commander-in-Chief's trophy in what is shaping up to be a rainy and windy Saturday afternoon at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.</p> <p><b>Start Time:</b> 3:30 PM ET</p>
<p><b>Location:</b> Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium Annapolis, MD</p>
<p><b>TV:</b> CBS Sports Network (John Sadak, Randy Cross, Sheehan Stanwick-Burch)</p>
<p><b>Streaming:</b> <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/video/armed-forces">Navy All-Access (John Sadak, Randy Cross, Sheehan Stanwick-Burch)</a></p>
<p><b>Radio:</b> <b>Navy:</b> Navy Football Radio Network (Pete Medhurst, Omar Nelson, Joe Miller) WBAL 1090 AM Baltimore; WNAV 1430 AM 99.9 FM Annapolis <b>Air Force: </b>(Jim Arthur, Jesse Kurtz) KVOR AM 740 Colorado Springs; The Fan 104.3 FM Denver</p>
<p><b>Series Record:</b> Air Force 28-Navy 19</p>
<p><b>Live Stats:</b> <a href="http://www.navysports.com/gametracker/launch/gt_mfootbl.html?event=1416159&school=navy&sport=mfootbl&camefrom=&startschool=&">Link</a></p>
<h4>Preview:<br>
</h4>
<p>Even though the forecast for Hurricane Joaquin has shifted to the east, the weather will still play a factor tomorrow in Annapolis. The Navy football team has been practicing in the rain all week, preparing themselves for what appears to be a wet and windy day on the gridiron.</p>
<p>Navy (3-0) is coming off of their first ever road conference win after beating UConn 28-18 last weekend behind another strong offensive performance from quarterback <span>Keenan Reynolds</span> and a solid defensive second half that saw the Mids get stops on multiple possessions in a row to preserve their lead and come away with the W.</p>
<p>Air Force (2-1) enters the game off of a bye week following a 35-21 loss in East Lansing against then number four Michigan State. Even though they were unable to pull off the upset, their defense held Michigan State to 77 yards rushing and <span>Karson Roberts</span> filled in nicely for injured starter <span>Nate Romine</span> after some early game jitters.</p>
<p>While the battle for the Commander-in-Chief's trophy starts on Saturday in Annapolis, there is another element to this game that adds depth to the rivalry. With Navy as a member of the <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/american" class="sbn-auto-link">American</a> Athletic Conference, this game could have implications down the road as this is one of only two games this year played between the Mountain West Conference and AAC. The other was a 41-20 Tulsa victory over New Mexico in week two. Conference bragging rights add another level of intrigue to an already intense rivalry, especially as Commissioner Aresco continues to prop up the AAC as the Power Six conference. The AAC is playing very well so far, and another non-conference victory against a Group of 5 opponent can only help their cause.</p>
<h4>When Navy has the ball:</h4>
<p>Keenan Reynolds and the rest of the Navy offense remembers what happened last year in Colorado Springs. They are out for redemption in this game, and are looking to continue a string of success that has seen them run their winning streak up to seven games dating back to last season.</p>
<p>The offense has looked almost unstoppable during the first halves of games this season. Aside from Navy's first drive of the season against Colgate that resulted in a fumble, the Navy offense has scored points on EVERY other drive of the first half in their first three games this year. That is incredible and tells me two things. The first is that Navy offensive coordinator Ivin Jasper has come into each game with a great game plan for attacking the opponent's defense. The second is that no team has been able to simulate the actual speed and efficiency of Navy's offense with their scout team. The offense has been in rhythm early and that has led to big leads at halftime in each game this season.</p>
<p>Air Force will provide a challenge on defense, however. They limited Michigan State to 77 yards rushing in East Lansing two weeks ago. This was due in part to selling out on the run and forcing <span>Connor Cook</span> to beat them through the air, which he was able to do, but there is no mistaking that this is a physical defense that knows how to get off cut blocks and will be well prepared to handle the triple-option of Navy.</p>
<p><span>Alex Hansen</span>, <span>David Harris</span>, and Samuel Byers form a solid defensive line up front. <span>Dexter Walker</span> and <span>Connor Healy</span> have played well at the linebacker position, and <span>Weston Steelhammer</span> is the leader of the defense for a secondary that welcomes back <span>Gavin McHenry</span> this week after he completed six months of conduct probation and was reinstated by the team.</p>
<p>Reynolds and Co. will have their hands full on Saturday, but so far they have given every indication this season that they are clicking as a unit and up to the task.</p>
<p><b>Advantage: Slight to Navy</b></p>
<h4>When Air Force has the ball:</h4>
<p>The Navy defense continues to play well early on this season. <span>Will Anthony</span> and <span>Amos Mason</span> continue to get pressure in the backfield. <span>Micah Thomas</span> continues to rack up tackles alongside <span>Daniel Gonzales</span>. <span>Kevin McCoy</span> continues to have an impact as he has shot up the depth chart to be a co-starter at the Raider position and leads or is tied for the team lead in sacks, tackles for loss, forced fumbles, and fumble recoveries.</p>
<p>The secondary continues to step up when needed with <span>Quincy Adams</span> and <span>Brendon Clements</span> holding down the corner spots and <span>Lorentez Barbour</span> and <span>Kwazel Bertrand</span> playing well at the safety position.</p>
<p>Navy continues to limit explosive plays this season as they are ranked fifth in the country in explosiveness according to Bill Connelly's rankings over at Football Study Hall. The ability to play well as the field shrinks, step up in the red zone, and limit the plays for big gains has allowed Navy to limit opponents to 16.3 points per game, good for 22nd in the country in scoring defense.</p>
<p>Navy has also been able to get more pressure on the quarterback this season. We saw this early on with Colgate even though it didn't translate into any sacks, but last week at UConn saw the Navy defense rack up five sacks in one game compared to eight they had all of last season. They are getting pressure in the backfield which has helped them improve their third down conversion rate. They are eleventh in the country right now in sack rate on standard downs.</p>
<p>The Air Force offense is now being led by Karson Roberts. Navy fans may remember Roberts from the 2013 game against Air Force. Nate Romine started the season at quarterback, but a knee injury forced him to the sideline and Roberts got his first start of the season two weeks ago against Michigan State. There were clearly some early jitters for Roberts that led to a couple fumbles and some bad reads, but he settled in and seemed to get better as the game went along.</p>
<p>The Air Force rushing attack is led by <span>Jacobi Owens</span> and <span>D.J. Johnson</span> and currently sits second in the nation with a 367.0 yds/gm average. They have been able to move the ball effectively on the ground in all three games this season and will provide a tough matchup for the Navy linebacker corps on Saturday.</p>
<p><span>Jalen Robinette</span>, a preseason Biletnikoff award watchlist wide receiver, poses a constant big-play threat on the outside when Air Force decides to dial up the pass.</p>
<p>An interesting side note, Navy has not given up a rushing TD this season and Air Force has not given up a sack this season. With Air Force's prolific rushing attack and Navy's added emphasis on getting to the quarterback, something has to give this weekend.</p>
<p><b>Advantage: Slight to Air Force</b></p>
<h4>Special Teams:</h4>
<p><span>Alex Barta</span> has officially won the starting punting job for Navy after two terrific punts against UConn last week.</p>
<p><span>Austin Grebe</span> continues to be perfect as the Navy placekicker dating back to last season. Both Barta and Grebe are great special teams weapons for Navy, but Navy needs to clean up their punt and kick return game.</p>
<p>After fumbling a punt return and another kick return against UConn, it is only a matter of time before Navy is unable to recover one of the balls they put on the ground, and inevitably that will probably come at an inopportune time.</p>
<p>Air Force has one of the best punt return men in the country in <span>Garrett Brown</span>. He currently averages third in the country with 25.3 yards per return.</p>
<p>Navy appears to have the kicking edge while Air Force has the return edge.</p>
<p><b>Advantage: Even</b></p>
<h4>Prediction:</h4>
<p>With the weather predicted for tomorrow's game, this one could very well come down to who can hold onto the ball and win the turnover margin.</p>
<p>While the defenses stack up very similar and both teams are putting up comparable offensive numbers as well, I am taking Navy in this game for two reasons.</p>
<p>Navy has a four-year starter who has seen just about everything you can throw at him in Keenan Reynolds leading the offense.</p>
<p>The game is being played in Annapolis and Air Force is 1-5 in the triple-option era in Annapolis with the lone win coming 35-34 in overtime in 2011.</p>
<p><b>Navy 28-Air Force 24</b></p>
https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/10/2/9441751/air-force-falcons-vs-navy-midshipmen-preview-tv-streaming-radio-startJustin Mears2015-10-02T17:00:02-04:002015-10-02T17:00:02-04:00Old Dominion Takes On Marshall In CUSA Opener
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<figcaption>Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>An important Conference USA matchup, this game is very important for both teams hoping to make a run at a division title. </p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b>Old Dominion-Marshall</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span><b>Start Time: </b>3:30 P.M. ET, Saturday, Oct. 3</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span><b>Location: </b>Joan C. Edwards Stadium, Huntington, West Virginia</span></p>
<p><b>TV:</b> <a style="background-color: #ffffff;" class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/american">American</a> Sports Network</p>
<p><b>Streaming:</b> N/A</p>
<p><b>Radio: Old Dominion</b><b>: </b><a style="background-color: #ffffff;" href="http://www.odusports.com/liveEvents/liveEvents.dbml?SPID=127313&db_oem_id=31100">here</a><b>. Marshall</b><b>: </b><a style="background-color: #ffffff;" href="http://www.herdzone.com/collegesportslive/?media=502436">here</a><b>.</b></p>
<p><b>Records:</b> Old Dominion 2-2, Marshall 3-1. Marshall leads the overall series 1-0.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b></b></p>
<p><b>Live Stats: </b><a style="background-color: #ffffff;" href="http://www.herdzone.com/gametracker/launch/gt_mfootbl.html?event=1416643&school=mars&sport=mfootbl&camefrom=&startschool=&">here</a><b>.</b></p>
<p><b>Betting Line: </b>Marshall -18.5. Over/Under: 53.5.</p>
<p><b>Old Dominion</b><b> Outlook: </b>After two weeks of great offensive production, everything has fallen to the wayside for Old Dominion in recent weeks. <span>Ray Lawry</span> (78/475/6TD) leads a rushing attack that saw their success rate drop to 41.0% on the season. A stuff rate of 23.4% is a main reason for that issue. The Monarchs offensive line is getting beat at the line of scrimmage and giving Lawry and company virtually no chance at a positive play. Overall, Old Dominion is rushing the football for 151.3 yards per game at 4.3 yards per carry on the year.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>The nicest way to put things for the Monarchs passing game is that Shular Bentley (57-105/590/3TD) is struggling a bit. Bentley’s 54.3% completion rate is worrisome, but expected. Bentley has found four receivers (Pascal, Washington, Duhart, England) to receive the majority of his targets. The quartet account for 61.8 of Bentley’s pass attempts. Zach Pascal (11/64/0TD) and <span>David Washington</span> (7/65/1TD) have totaled 18 catches on the season, but have been targeted 36 times.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>For a team that has been outscored 87-14 in the last two games combined, the inability to stop the run game has been a death sentence. Old Dominion is giving up successful running plays on 54.3% of all rushing attempts. The defense has given up 228.5 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry on the season. The Monarchs pass defense ranks in the top 56 in S&P+, success rate, IsoPPP, and adjusted sack rate, ranking #24 nationally in S&P+.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Players to watch on defense include: Linebacker TJ Ricks (37 tkl, 1 tfl) and defensive backs Justice Davilla (32 tkl) and Fellonte Misher (30 tkl).</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span><b>Marshall</b></span><span><b> Outlook: </b>The Thundering Herd head into this matchup on a two game winning streak with wins over Norfolk State and Kent State for a 3-1 record.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>Marshall is one of the least explosive offenses in the nation with an IsoPPP of 1.14, good for #109 nationally. Despite having running back <span>Devon Johnson</span> (59/390/3TD) in the backfield, the run game is only successful on 38.3% of their carries. <span>Tony Pittman</span> (29/161/0TD) is a solid backup, but he is not the same battering ram that Johnson can be. A rushing IsoPPP of 1.24 is good for #16 nationally. As a whole, the run game is accounting for 165.5 yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>The problem with Marshall in the passing game is that neither <span>Michael Birdsong</span> (39-69/340/2TD) nor Chase Litton (38-67/421/6TD) are very accurate. Combined, the two are only completing 56.6% of their passes on the season. <span>Deon-Tay McManus</span> (10/105/0TD) has been the most targeted receiver on the team with 20.5% of the pass attempts heading his way. Allen, Foster and Yurachek are also being targeted on over 10% of quarterback pass attempts, with only Yurachek (82.4%) sporting a catch rate over 60%</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>Just like in 2014, the Marshall defense is having a solid season with a ranking of 51 or better nationally in four of the five factors. Opposing offenses are generating 188.8 yards per game on the ground with a 4.0 yards per carry average and a 41.6% success rate. The Marshall pass defense, giving up 175.2 yards per game, is holding offenses to a ridiculous 32.8% success rate. The defense ranks over #100 nationally in S&P+ during the first and third quarters, but jumps to #38 in the second quarter and an impressive #12 nationally in the fourth quarter. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span><span>Evan McKelvey</span> (47 tkl, 4 tfl) and <span>Tiquan Lang</span> (35 tkl, 2 INT) are the leading tacklers for a defense that has 24 tackles for loss and five sacks on the season.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span><b>Prediction: </b>Everything statistically says that Marshall is the better team and should be able to take care of Old Dominion. Marshall holds a win probability of 74% with a projected win margin of 10.9 points. </span>Lawry should get his stats versus a porous Marshall rush defense, but that will not be enough. Marshall should be able to use Johnson only when needed and do just enough to pull out this win. Marshall 27, Old Dominion 14.</p>
https://www.underdogdynasty.com/conference-usa/2015/10/2/9439311/old-dominion-monarchs-vs-marshall-thundering-herd-preview-tvJeremy Adcock