10 non-conference games that shape the AAC’s College Football Playoff hopes

Access to the CFP has never been easier for the AAC. Here are the 10 games that determine if that access is granted.

By Steve Helwick@s_helwick Jun 4, 2024, 10:30am EDT

It’s undeniable that the 2024 college football season will feel like a new era of the sport. The Pac-12 is now just a two-team league of Oregon State and Washington State. The SEC features Texas and Oklahoma. The Big Ten extends to the West Coast. The ACC includes SMU, Stanford, and Cal. And a whole third of the Pac-12 is in the Big 12.

It’s a lot to take in at once, and change isn’t always easy to handle. But there’s one massive change American Athletic Conference fans can enjoy amidst all the chaos this year, and that’s increased College Football Playoff access. Reaching the CFP wasn’t easy for the AAC under the 4-team format — just look at all the hoops 2021 Cincinnati had to jump through to sneak in. Going undefeated. Conveniently scheduling a Notre Dame team that finished the regular season 11-1. Multiple losses by the Big 12, Pac-12, and ACC champions. All of that had to convey just for the Bearcats to latch onto a No. 4 seed.

Now that the CFP includes 12 teams and five automatic bids for conference champions, the AAC has an inside track to the playoff. History suggests four of those conference champions will hail from the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC. But if the AAC champion can assemble a more worthy résumé than the champions of the Mountain West, Sun Belt, MAC, and CUSA, then the conference will set foot in the inaugural 12-team playoff.

To make the playoff, winning non-conference games is a requisite. In fact, non-conference success was the determining factor in denying the AAC its seventh consecutive New Year’s Six bowl last year. While Liberty’s strength of schedule paled in comparison to that of SMU, the Flames bested the Mustangs for the Fiesta Bowl bid due to a better overall record, faring 13-0 heading into bowl season compared to 11-2. SMU dropped two September non-conference games to Oklahoma and TCU, and those losses came back to bite in December running through AAC play in dominant fashion.

The maximum number of losses the AAC champion can afford to qualify for the playoff is probably two, but earning a bid as a two-loss team is no guarantee — especially if a Mountain West champion arises with one loss. Thus, every serious AAC CFP contender should target a zero or one-loss season in order to punch their first-ever playoff ticket.

So which non-conference games matter the most this year? Here’s a list below, ranking all 10:

10. Florida Atlantic at Michigan State

Week 1: Friday, August 30 — Boca Raton, FL

NCAA Football: Florida Atlantic at Illinois — FAU head coach Tom Herman enters his second year with the program, looking to improve on a 4-8 standing.

If there’s one thing to know about Tom Herman-led programs, it’s that they usually become winners quickly. Herman’s first head coaching job at Houston resulted in a year one New Year’s Six bowl victory complemented with a top 10 finish. His second coaching job at Texas resulted in a year two New Year’s Six bowl victory complemented with a top 10 finish. The head coach experienced his first losing season ever last fall in his first go-around at Florida Atlantic, and now he’ll try to orchestrate a turnaround at a program that hasn’t finished above .500 since 2019.

Florida Atlantic skyrocketed out of nowhere before. In Lane Kiffin’s first year at the helm in 2017, he turned a 3-9 Owls team into an 11-3 Conference USA champion. Herman hopes to follow a similar pattern coming off a 4-8 season, and his team already has a foundation of a potent defense. Florida Atlantic only allowed 25 points in two of its eight AAC contests in 2023, and key components of that unit return including outside linebacker Jackson Ambush and cornerback Daedae Hill. His Owls have a chance to play spoiler in Jonathan Smith’s Week 1 coaching debut at Michigan State. If things go the Owls’ way, this Friday night contest could be a tone-setter for the FAU season as well, letting the rest of the AAC know that this year’s squad is a different animal than the previous one.

9. UTSA at Texas

Week 3: Saturday, September 14 — Austin, TX

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 17 UTSA at Texas — Texas edged UTSA 41-20 in the prior meeting in 2022, but the Roadrunners held a 17-7 lead early in the contest.

UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor takes on the first college which gave him a coaching opportunity. In 2015 and 2016, after a long and prosperous high school coaching career, Traylor onboarded as Texas’ tight ends and special teams coach — a key step in his journey to becoming the face of the Roadrunner football program. In Week 3, he travels to Austin for the second time as UTSA’s head coach in hopes of shocking the Longhorns and logging the Roadrunners’ greatest regular season win in program history.

Chalking up a victory under the lights in Austin won’t be a simple task. This Texas team, coming off its first-ever CFP appearance, will likely launch the season ranked in the top five of the AP Poll. But just two years ago, UTSA gave the Longhorns all they could handle until a pick six on a potential go-ahead drive completely shifted the momentum n the final minute of the third quarter. If the Roadrunners win the AAC, they can still make the playoff without this win — especially if Texas lives up to its lofty expectations. But in the chance Traylor’s team does the unthinkable, UTSA is a lock for the CFP if it also hoists the AAC championship trophy on Dec. 6.

8. North Texas at Texas Tech

Week 3: Saturday, September 14 — Lubbock, TX

West Virginia v TCU — North Texas’ potent offense will operate under the direction of QB Chandler Morris, who was TCU’s starter last season.

One sleeper team that possesses plenty of intrigue in the AAC is North Texas. The last two years of Mean Green football have been a spitting image of Patrick Mahomes era Texas Tech, which would post top 10 offenses, combatted by bottom 10 defenses — thus resulting in an overall record hovering around .500. And speaking of Texas Tech, that is the game to circle on this North Texas team’s 2024 calendar.

But what makes North Texas so intriguing is the potency of its offense — it could post a scoring rampage on anybody. The Mean Green offense caught fire against some of the AAC’s best last year, but fell short to Tulane, UTSA, and Memphis in one-score losses mainly due to defensive lapses. They averaged 34.5 points per game under first-year head coach Eric Morris, who now has a valuable year of experience under his belt. The reins of North Texas’ more compelling unit will be handed to former TCU starting quarterback Chandler Morris, who possesses dual-threat abilities to keep this offense lethal like it was last fall. Defensively, any improvement — especially against the run — would go a long way in turning North Texas into a dark horse AAC contender. Their toughest test in non-conference play comes Week 3 against an experienced Texas Tech squad, led by star running back Tahj Brooks. Can they go toe-for-toe with the Red Raiders in a shootout? This September clash will go a long way in determining if North Texas is indeed a dangerous lurker in this conference.

7. UTSA at Texas State

Week 2: Saturday, September 7 — San Marcos, TX

Texas State v UTSA — UTSA defeated Texas State, 20-13, in Week 2 at the Alamodome last year. The Roadrunners are 5-0 against the Bobcats all-time at the FBS level.

This is quietly one of the best emerging rivalries in college football. UTSA and Texas State fans are not the friendliest to each other, and this game comes attached with more bad blood with each passing year. To make the I-35 Rivalry even better, Texas State is finally hitting its stride under G.J. Kinne, just a few years after Jeff Traylor evolved UTSA to a consistent winner.

All five matchups in series history have concluded in a Roadrunner triumph, including last September’s 20-13 decision at the Alamodome. But this year the rivalry moves down the interstate to San Marcos in what could easily be the highest-capacity crowd in Texas State history. This 2024 UTSA team is different, losing its super seniors Frank Harris, Joshua Cephus, and Rashad Wisdom who were vital to growing the program’s culture throughout the Traylor era. Still, Traylor’s team proved its depth last season, even winning its bowl game with projected 2024 starter Owen McCown manning the quarterback position. Texas State counters with reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year Jordan McCloud at quarterback and a slew of returning players fresh off an 8-5 campaign. If UTSA wants to make any CFP statement, planting its flag in Sun Belt territory Week 2 is a must.

6. Rice at Houston

Week 3: Saturday, September 14 — Houston, TX

Did you know that only five of the 14 teams in the 2024 AAC qualified for bowl eligibility last year? One of those five is Rice, which is fresh off hitting six wins for the first time since 2014. The best Owls team in nearly a decade was still quite average last year, finishing 6-7 overall and 4-4 in AAC play. But they battled the 2023 AAC Championship Game participants with valiance, coming up short by just combined seven points to Tulane and SMU.

But continuity is valuable, and the 2024 Owls are strikingly similar to the 2023 Owls, returning 20 of the top 22 on defense and nine starters on offense. Yes, Rice loses JT Daniels at quarterback but the team reloads with an impressive transfer portal haul in E.J. Warner, who showcased his gunslinging tendencies at Temple. The Warner-led Owls are granted a very manageable non-conference schedule of Sam Houston, UConn, and Texas Southern of the FCS. But if Rice can win its Bayou Bucket rivalry game over Houston for the second consecutive year (which hasn’t been done since 2000 and 2001), this sleeper team could complete a 4-0 non-conference run — something no AAC team did last year.

5. Tulane at Oklahoma

Week 3: Saturday, September 14 — Norman, OK

Oklahoma v Tulane — Tulane nearly pulled off a Week 1 upset in Norman three years ago, falling to Oklahoma 40-35. The upcoming Week 3 matchup is the teams’ first meeting since.

Remember the last time Tulane and Oklahoma settled things on the gridiron? It was September 2021 and the game was originally scheduled to transpire in the Big Easy. However, Hurricane Ida displaced the Green Wave and shifted the contest to Norman. Despite the logistical complications, Tulane nearly pulled off a stunner. The Green Wave rallied from a 23-point halftime deficit by edging the Sooners 21-3 in the second half. After scoring with roughly two minutes remaining, Tulane scooped up the onside kick, trailing 40-35. But on a critical 4th and 13, quarterback Michael Pratt picked up just 12 yards on a QB keeper, falling inches short of a potential upset bid.

Fast forward three years later and these programs are in different places. Tulane finished 2-10 that hurricane-riddled season, but the Green Wave turned into an AAC power the last two years with 23 combined wins, two conference championship appearances, and an unforgettable Cotton Bowl victory over USC. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is now in the SEC, looking to make a return to the CFP picture after missing in four consecutive years. Avenging the 2021 loss in Norman won’t be easy for first-year Tulane headman Jon Sumrall and his reloaded squad, and it won’t be his first test with the Green Wave either. This game comes off the heels of a Week 2 matchup vs. Kansas State, and Tulane just needs one of those wins to make a proper statement to the CFP committee.

4. Miami (FL) at South Florida

Week 4: Saturday, September 21 — Tampa, FL

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: DEC 21 RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl - USF vs Syracuse — South Florida QB Byrum Brown won Offensive MVP honors of the Boca Raton Bowl — a 45-0 win over Syracuse. This will be South Florida’s first AAC matchup since.

The non-conference action in the Sunshine State will be tremendous this year. There’s the annual Florida-Florida State matchup in November, but also Florida plays UCF, Florida plays Miami (FL), and then there’s this under-the-radar matchup between Miami (FL) and South Florida. Both teams are coming off 7-6 seasons, but the Bulls and Hurricanes alike are facing greater expectations in 2024.

After years of wallowing in the cellar, South Florida expedited its rebuild thanks to the hire of Tennessee offensive coordinator Alex Golesh. Golesh instantly added flair and creativity to South Florida’s offense, equipping the Bulls with the fastest unit in the land — operating at warp speed between snaps. Not only is the system effective, but it has a stellar frontman in quarterback Byrum Brown. The dual-threat weapon was one of seven quarterbacks to exceed 800 yards rushing in 2023, and he added 3,292 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. How does South Florida defend home turf against a Hurricanes team which struck gold in the portal this offseason? It starts in the trenches. Fortify the offensive line to protect Brown, and on the other side, apply copious amounts of pressure on new Miami quarterback Cam Ward. Their blitz-happy defense gave SEC champion Alabama fits last September in Tampa, and that game was tied at halftime. Let’s see if South Florida can finish the deed this time and collect a significant win to impress the CFP committee.

3. Troy at Memphis

Week 2: Saturday, September 7 — Memphis, TN

AutoZone Liberty Bowl - Memphis v Iowa State — Seth Henigan enters his fourth season as Memphis’ starting quarterback, leading the program to a 10-3 record last fall.

This is the first appearance for the Memphis Tigers on this list. Memphis is the AAC favorite according to most sports books, and for good reason. The Tigers return a fourth-year starting quarterback in Seth Henigan who has taken a step forward in his game each year. The continuity extends beyond the quarterback with a star First Team All-AAC linebacker in Chandler Martin. Ryan Silverfield has filled the cracks pretty nicely through the transfer portal as well, bolstering the Tigers to a 10-3 season last year — with close losses to 11-2 Missouri, 11-3 SMU, and 11-3 Tulane, and impressive wins over Iowa State and Mountain West champion Boise State.

It is imperative that the AAC favorite establish its dominance early to earn the league a bid in the first-ever 12-team playoff — especially when one of the competing conferences for that bid is the Sun Belt. And who better to prove superiority against than the two-time defending Sun Belt champion? Troy does have some work to do to get back to the mountaintop after losing head coach Jon Sumrall to Tulane and 10 of its 12 All-Sun Belt selections from 2023. Memphis has an excellent track record at home in recent history, and the Trojans can offer a quality non-conference win. They’ll serve as an excellent test to the AAC favorites before they travel for an all-important Week 3 matchup at Florida State.

2. Kansas State at Tulane

Week 2: Saturday, September 7 — New Orleans, LA

Tulane v Kansas State — Tulane took down Kansas State in a 17-10 defensive-oriented slugfest in 2022. Both teams wound up as conference champions and New Year’s Six bowl participants.

The potential of Tulane’s magical 2022 campaign was first realized in the Little Apple of Manhattan, KS. The Green Wave suffocated Kansas State’s ground-based attack on the road to make their first major statement in a 12-2 season. They forced the Wildcats to 2-of-15 on third downs and 1-of-5 on fourth downs, leaving with a gritty 17-10 victory over the eventual Big 12 champions.

The teams reunite on the gridiron in the Big Easy in Week 2. It’s a very different Tulane team as most notable figures from that 2022 Cotton Bowl champion squad are elsewhere now — including head coach Willie Fritz and quarterback Michael Pratt, among others. But Jon Sumrall consulted the portal to reload a Tulane team coming off an 11-win campaign, and there’s enough talent in house to make a run at a third consecutive AAC Championship Game appearance. If Tulane can notch this key non-conference win for its résumé in Week 2, the Green Wave could embark on another memorable run, just like they did two years ago.

1. Memphis at Florida State

Week 3: Saturday, September 14 — Tallahassee, FL

NCAA Football: American Athletic Championship-Cincinnati at Memphis — Florida State head coach Mike Norvell coached four seasons at Memphis, winning the 2019 AAC championship with the Tigers. Week 3 will be his first battle against his former team.

It’s the Mike Norvell revenge game, pitted against his former understudy. The changing of the guard transpired right before the biggest game in Memphis Tigers history. Fresh off a 2019 AAC championship, Norvell accepted the Florida State job, leaving assistant Ryan Silverfield to serve as the interim coach for the Cotton Bowl against Penn State. Five years later, Norvell remains in charge of the Seminoles and Silverfield is still donning that Memphis blue and silver, looking to return to that massive stage.

It took a few years, but Norvell is turning Florida State into the power it was a decade ago. The Seminoles won the ACC title last year and entered bowl season with a spotless 13-0 record before succumbing to Georgia in the Orange Bowl. While Florida State lost 10 key players to the NFL Draft, the Seminoles reloaded with a mix of returning talent like star pass rusher Patrick Payton and transfers including quarterback DJ Uiagalelei and defensive end Marvin Jones Jr. This isn’t going to be an easy one for Memphis, but the Tigers haven’t shied away from tough competition lately — playing 11-2 Missouri within a touchdown at a neutral site last September. Memphis won’t be favored, but this game is winnable. If Silverfield pulls it off over his former mentor in Tallahassee, the Tigers instantly assume CFP contender status heading into AAC play.