SMU Mustangs (2-2, American) vs. UCF Knights (3-1, American)

Time and Date: TBD**

Broadcast Network: TBD**

Location: FBC Mortgage Stadium - Orlando, FL

ESPN FPI: UCF 71.5%

Line: UCF -3.5*

Point Total: 65.5*

All-Time Series: UCF leads the all time series against SMU, 8-2

Last Meeting: SMU 55, UCF 28 - November 13, 2021

Current Streak: SMU, 1

*Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.

**The game is being played on an alternate date due to Hurricane Ian. ESPN has not announced what channel the game will be broadcast on yet.

Preview

SMU’s comeback effort against TCU came up short as the Mustangs fell 42-34. While losing a rivalry game to your former head coach has to sting, Rhett Lashlee’s squad needs to regroup quickly before they begin their 8 game conference slate. This means two different things depending on what side of the ball you are focusing on.

After SMU’s relatively good start on defense, TCU revealed that the Mustangs still have work to do on D. The defense gave up numerous chunk plays including an 80-yard TD through the air and a 63-yard TD on the ground. The defense gave up 28 points in the first half and failed to force a turnover against the Horned Frogs. Eventually SMU got things under control in the second half by forcing four straight stops, but it was too little too late.

Like the defense, SMU’s offense wasn’t bad after they got over their slow start. In the second half, they scored touchdowns on half their drives. However, something looked slightly off with the Mustangs offense. QB Tanner Mordecai tied his season high in interceptions and had his lowest TD output this season. WR Rashee Rice was held up 100 yards for the first time this season. That could be explained by Lashlee’s post game comments that Rice and Mordecai were playing banged up. Despite this, the group still connected for yet another touchdown and SMU will feel good about their chances going to the Bounce House. Fortunately, Mordecai and Rice will get an extra day to rest up and get healthy now that the game is being played on Sunday due to Hurricane Ian.

On the other side, UCF are hoping to reclaim their AAC crown from Cincinnati. Gus Malzahn’s squad ended their non-conference slate with a win over Georgia Tech, 27-10. Sitting at 3-1, there is a lot to like about the Knights ahead of conference play and their match up with SMU.

All eyes are on QB John Rhys Plumee to see how he will perform against SMU’s defense. While the dual threat QB is averaging 200 yards passing and 100 yards rushing per game, the devil is in the details. He only threw for 49 yards against Georgia Tech and struggled against Louisville. However, he threw for over 300 yards against FAU and South Carolina State. Fortunately, he has always made up with his lackluster passing game with his legs. Plumlee scampered for a 28-yard TD and finished with 100 yards on the ground against the Yellow Jackets.

Surprisingly, special teams are stealing the headlines for the Knights. With an all-time great kicker name, Freshmen Colton Boomer is turning some heads after his 4-4 FG performance against Georgia Tech. He is now 6-6 on the season with two kicks over 40 yards. In what may be a close affair, having an ace in the hole on special teams could be the difference.

Prediction

I am picking UCF to win at home against SMU. If Rice and Mordecai were playing 100% and not coming off an emotional loss to TCU, this pick would have been significantly more difficult. I think the game is close, but the Knights find a way to win 31-24.