Louisiana-Monroe at Georgia State
Date/time: Saturday, Nov. 12, 1:00 p.m. EST
Location: Center Parc Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Records: ULM 3-6 (2-3) GSU 4-5 (3-2)
DraftKings Line: GSU -13.5 as of 11/10/22*, O/U 58.5
Previous meetings: Georgia State leads all-time series 4-3; last game GSU beat ULM 55-21 in 2021
*Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.
While neither team has a shot to make a push for the Sun Belt Championship, both still have bowl game aspirations. ULM are on their last leg, one loss in the next three games kills their postseason hopes, and at five losses, GSU is not far behind.
Despite the implications and either side being hot (hot being a relative term for ULM), Georgia State is expected to continue last week’s trend of domination.
A Quick Look at GSU
Based purely on numbers, the Panthers are a really easy team to beat. They are 0-5 in contests in which their game-high rusher has less than 100 yards.
So, make sure no one has a big game on the ground, and you’re good.
However, unlike most teams that struggle for even one 100+ yard rusher on a weekly basis, the Panthers possess four ball carriers with superstar rushing skills. You don’t have to stop one man, you need to stop four.
Tucker Gregg became the program’s all-time leading rusher this season; Darren Grainger is a better runner than he is a passer; Jam Williams is a more agile runner than Gregg and makes men miss; Marcus Carroll had a breakout 163-yard game last week.
If ULM can stop all four stallions in Georgia State’s stable, they should be good on the defensive side…
But there’s still the matter of scoring.
In three of their four wins this season, GSU has allowed 17-or-less points; the one exception was against the Sun Belt’s highest scoring offense.
A Quick Look at ULM
While still better than the seemingly long-ago winless 2020 season, Louisiana-Monroe is still a work in progress within the Terry Bowden-era rebuild.
The defense is the worst in the conference, having allowed exactly 50 more points than second-worst. Both the rushing and passing yards allowed totals are in the cellar in the Sun Belt, and the Warhawks don’t force turnovers.
The offense is equally uneasy; ULM does not have a runner that cracks the SBC top-20 for yards, and only one receiver— Tyrone Howell— has more than 25 catches or 340 yards.
Chandler Rogers is a week-to-week coin flip; he looked elite against Coastal Carolina but was borderline miserable against Louisiana.
Rogers does add a threat on the ground on both designed runs and when plays breakdown, which is crucial considering the Warhawks allow 2.8 sacks in Sun Belt games.
The Panthers feel like a wildcard at times, but in reality their in-conference games usually go as anticipated. A two-score spread feels apt as last week’s domination over Southern Miss is an anomaly, not the trend, but should GSU get another monster rushing game things could get out of hand.
Despite the stakes, GSU is a better team than ULM in almost every way.