Underdogs Against the Spread: Best Week 10 G5 College Football ATS Picks

I said it last week and I’ll say it again: The one thing to remember in this world is you can’t win them all.

After going 4-1 two weeks ago, Week 9 was the first losing week for us with a 2-3 mark. Going back to the well four weeks in a row with San Diego State was bound to come up a loser. ULM turned the ball over five times, the most costly for us being a fumble at the 2-yard line on their final possession on a drive that would have given us the cover. Cincinnati not blowing out Tulane is largely why they were snubbed in the College Football Playoff rankings, if you ask Gary Barta.

Houston and SMU was exactly the shootout I expected. And hopefully you took my advice to “sprinkle a little bit on the money line (+355)” which led to an easy Navy cover.

We get back to winning this week with two unders, two road wins for ranked teams and unfortunately, a P5 team covering against a G5 program.

2021 Record: 12-9

*All lines are according to ScoresAndOdds.com and are accurate at the time this article is published

Army Black Knights vs. Air Force Falcons (Under 36.5)

The top two rushing teams in the nation square off and the under has hit in seven straight meetings between the two service academies. The total has also gone under in nine of Air Force’s last 11 games. Don’t overthink it. Take the under in this one as well.

Liberty Flames vs. Ole Miss Rebels (-9.5)

The title is Underdogs Against the Spread and this would typically be a spot where I’d love to take the G5 team against a P5 team. It has some fascinating storylines with Hugh Freeze heading back to Oxford and two of the top quarterback prospects in Matt Corral and Malik Willis. But as much as I tried to talk myself into backing Liberty, who is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games and in the top 20 in scoring offense and defense, I just can’t. The fact of the matter is Liberty has played against teams nowhere close to the talent Ole Miss possess during their impressive two-year run. Liberty is gonna have a tough time slowing down Ole Miss’ offense and while Lane Kiffin has been openly critical of his defense this season, the Flames haven’t seen anything like it.

Utah State Aggies vs. New Mexico State Aggies (Under 71)

This number is way too high considering the trends for both Aggies. The total has gone under in seven of Utah State’s last nine road games. The total has gone under in seven of New Mexico State’s last eight against Utah State, including the last five meetings in Las Cruces. The 71 points is the highest total in their last 10 meetings.

No. 20 Houston Cougars (-13) vs. USF Bulls

The Cougars’ win last week puts them at 5-0 in conference play and in the driver’s seat to take on Cincinnati in the AAC Championship. They’ve been known for their high-powered offense for much of their time in the AAC (currently 19th in scoring offense) but it’s been their defense that’s carried them to that 7-1 record. The Coogs are 10th against the run, 18th in pass defense and 24th in scoring defense. USF is 106th in scoring offense and 109th in scoring defense. Houston is also 3-0 ATS on the road this season and 4-1 ATS in the last five games against USF. Honestly, if this spread was 20, I’d still back the Coogs so getting them just under two touchdowns is great value.

No. 16 UTSA Roadrunners (-11.5) vs. UTEP Miners

Conference USA rarely gets nationally televised games, and if you ask me, it would have been a perfect opportunity for College Gameday to help a conference that could use the exposure after being gutted during the latest realignment. I’ll end my rant there before going into a rabbit hole about how ESPN’s stranglehold on the bowl system is ruining college football. Anyways, back to what you came here for: backing UTSA in arguably the biggest game in program history. Not only are the Roadrunners 8-0 on the season, but also 7-1 ATS. They’ve scored 45 points in consecutive weeks and 52 in the week prior. After being completely left out the CFP rankings, UTSA makes a statement for the G5 with a big road win.

Check back with us next week for more and let me know what you think in the comments below or via Twitter. Until next week, SHOW ME THE MONEY!!