Underdogs Against the Spread: Best Week 11 G5 College Football ATS Picks

Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. It’s a popular saying from Baltimore Orioles legend Frank Robinson.

With that said, we were close to a perfect day in Week 10.

If it weren’t for not one, but two Brian Battie kickoff returns for a touchdown, Houston would have covered the spread and gave us a perfect week. Instead, USF gave Houston a real scare with a lead at halftime.

Still finished with a 4-1 mark, the second time in three weeks with that record.

Let’s keep that momentum going into Week 11 with a favorite, an underdog, an over, an under and to close it all out, a money line winner.

2021 Record: 16-10

*All lines are according to ScoresAndOdds.com and are accurate at the time this article is published

UCF Knights vs. SMU Mustangs (over 59.5)

Both teams had poor offensive showings last week and they turn it around this week by putting up some points. UCF has gone over the total in their last five road games, and last week was the first time all season that SMU failed to score 30-plus points. I see this game finishing at 35-28, which gives us the points we need to hit the over.

FIU Panthers vs. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (-10.5)

The Blue Raiders are 3-0 ATS at home this year and have allowed just 10.6 points per game in home games. The Panthers are 1-8, 101st in scoring offense and 124th in scoring defense. They are also 1-3 ATS on the road this season, and 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games. MTSU wins this one relatively easy.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Tulane Green Wave (+3)

I was tempted to go with the money line (+122) but it’s not the best value so we’ll take the points. Tulsa gave Cincinnati some problems last week but they are also 1-5 ATS as a favorite this year. The Green Wave are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games at Yulman Stadium, and 7-1 ATS as a home underdog the last five seasons. Tulane is a better team than their record indicates and finally gets another win to prove it.

Air Force Falcons vs. Colorado State Rams (Under 45.5)

These are two stingy defenses going up against offenses not built to score in bunches. Air Force is the top rushing team in the nation and second in time of possession. Colorado State is 102nd in scoring offense. The total has gone under five of the Falcons’ last six games, and under in six of the Rams’ last eight.

Utah State Aggies (ML +165) vs. San Jose State Spartans

I had to do a double take when I saw this line at 4.5 points as I would have thought it would be at 1 or a pick em. This gives us great value on the Aggies money line. Utah State’s only losses this season have come against Boise State and BYU, and they have won the last eight meetings against San Jose State. This is the perfect way to end out Saturday night.

Check back with us next week for more and let me know what you think in the comments below or via Twitter. Until next week, SHOW ME THE MONEY!!