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Underdogs Against the Spread: Best Week 9 G5 College Football ATS Picks

Am I really backing one team for a fourth week in a row? Damn right I am.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 21 Tulane at SMU Photo by George Walker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

It doesn’t get much better than that.

Week 8 was marvelous. It was the first time this season I picked a money line winner and not one, but two under plays. All three cashed in. SMU covered relatively easily on Thursday night to get things going. The under hit in both WKU vs. FIU and Temple vs. USF. And like I said last week, “go to sleep Saturday night as a winner” and we did just that with San Diego State winning outright at a +144 money line.

The one thing to remember in this world is you can’t win them all. The lone loser was Temple to cover against USF and boy, that was ugly. The Bulls ran all over the Owls, finishing with 421 yards on the ground.

The 4-1 mark was easily the best of the season and moved us to four games over .500. Let’s keep that momentum going into Week 9 where the AAC has some juicy matchups for us to target.

2021 Record: 10-6

*All lines are according to ScoresAndOdds.com and are accurate at the time this article is published


Navy Midshipmen (+11) vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane

The Mids are getting dinged for their 1-6 record but they have been competitive in just about every game this season, including last week when they gave No. 2 Cincinnati a scare. Four of their defeats this season have been by one score, and included in those losses are Cincinnati, SMU and Houston. Those three programs are a combined 20-1 this season. Tulsa is coming off a bye week which gives them an extra week to prepare for Navy’s triple-option offense but it’s one thing practicing for it and another to actually go against it. The trends favor the service academy as well as they are 4-1-1 ATS and 5-1 SU against in their last six games against Tulsa. I wouldn’t be afraid to sprinkle a little bit on the money line (+355 at the moment) but the best bet is the Navy to cover this double-digit spread.

No. 2 Cincinnati Bearcats (-24.5) vs. Tulane Green Wave

I just touched on how Navy gave Cincy a scare, but in the two games prior, they scored over 50 points. Tulane’s defense is allowing 42.3 points per game, ranking 128th in scoring defense and there is uncertainty at quarterback for the Green Wave with starter Michael Pratt dealing with a concussion. Last week was the wake-up call the Bearcats needed as they enter the final stretch of the season and prepare for the College Football Playoff rankings. They will score at will and put up another 50-plus this week.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (+27.5) vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers

This piece is called Underdogs Against the Spread and ULM has been the epitome of that this season. The Warhawks continue to get no love from odds makers despite their 4-3 record. Three of those wins have come as a heavy underdog: 23.5-point dog against Troy, 33-point underdog against Liberty and 13.5-point underdog against South Alabama last week. So you’re telling me they are getting 27.5 points this week? Sign me up. App State is 7-13 ATS in their last 20 games and this is the biggest spread they’ve had against a FBS team since, well, ULM last season when they were a 28.5-point favorite. The Mountaineers won that game, 31-13, and I expect a similar result in this one.

No. 19 SMU Mustangs vs. Houston Cougars (Over 62.5)

This is a huge matchup in the AAC West that will likely decide who plays Cincinnati in the conference championship game. The last time these teams met in 2019, the Mustangs won 34-31, and that’s the exactly the scored that came to mind before doing the research. That seems like fate to me. Both teams rank in the top 20 in scoring and with a game of this importance, expect a shootout between these in-state rivals.

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. No. 21 San Diego State Aztecs (-1)

If you can’t tell by now, San Diego State is one of my favorite teams to back this season. This is the fourth consecutive week I’m putting them in this piece, and with this being basically a pick ‘em at home for SDSU, I’m going to keep riding the wave. The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last six conference games. The Aztecs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. I’ll say it again this week: back the ranked team at home and go to sleep a winner.

Check back with us next week for more and let me know what you think in the comments below or via Twitter. Until next week, SHOW ME THE MONEY!!