It was only a matter of time until the streak of only one loss in our Underdogs Against the Spread finally came to an end.
With that said, it was still another winning week of picking inside the Group of Five after a 3-2 mark in Week 4. Western Michigan and Syracuse went well over the posted total, Ohio State absolutely obliterated Miami (Ohio), and UAB continued to be a covering machine at home.
UCF and San Diego State failed to do their part, the first time this season we had multiple losers in our weekly ATS picks. Both programs have been relatively good to us since starting this piece a couple years ago, so we will give them a pass this week.
The overall results for the season are still impressive as we have had a winning record every week this year. Let’s keep the good vibes going as there are plenty more winners moving forward. Below are the picks for Week 5.
2019 Record: 14-5-1
*All lines are according to Bovada and are accurate at the time posted
New Mexico Lobos vs. Liberty Flames (-7)
There will be a ton of points scored so the over could also be a smart play, but Liberty is the more trustworthy team. The Lobos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games and have failed to cover nine of their last 12 games as an underdog. The Flames are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 non-conference games, including a 52-43 win in Albuquerque last season. With this game in Lynchburg, Flames win by two scores.
Connecticut Huskies vs. UCF Knights (Over 64.5)
You almost have to feel bad for UConn in this spot. They have been A LOT better in 2019 as we have yet to see the 50-plus point game against the defense. Until this week. UCF is not happy about their loss to Pitt last week and might hit the total on their own. In the last edition of the Civil Conflict, - one of the funnier “rivalries” created in the last decade - the Knights kickoff UConn’s last season in the AAC with another embarrassing loss.
UAB Blazers (-3) vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
The Blazers were in our picks last week and here they are again as they have been good to us the last two seasons. WKU will be without quarterback Steven Duncan and whoever the replacement may be will take on a stingy UAB defense. The Hilltoppers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games so being at home is not a huge advantage for them. UAB has been the class of the Conference USA since their return and that doesn’t change this week.
Houston Cougars (+7.5) vs. North Texas Mean Green
The news of D’Eriq King deciding to redshirt has a lot to do with this line being what it is, but let’s not forget that Clayton Tune is no slouch and Houston is still the more talented team. The Coogs are obviously not the same without King, but Dana Holgorsen still has the pieces to win (or at least cover) this week and moving forward.
Hawaii Warriors vs. Nevada Wolf Pack (-2.5)
Hawaii has been a popular pick for me over the years, but Nevada has had their number. The Wolfpack are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between the two programs, and have won five straight home games against Hawaii by 10 points or more. The Rainbow Warriors are not the same team when away from the island as they are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 road games. Nevada has an underrated pass defense and it’s supposed to be frigid in Reno Saturday night. All signs are pointing to another Wolfpack win.
Check back with us next week for more and let me know what you think in the comments below or via Twitter. Until next week, SHOW ME THE MONEY!!