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Underdogs Against the Spread: Top Week 4 G5 Football ATS Picks

After going 4-1 in Week 3, our record stands at 11-3-1 to start the 2019 season.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 07 UAB at Akron Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Hope you have been following along because it has been a blistering start to the 2019 season with my Underdog Against the Spread picks.

You almost have to laugh at how Oklahoma State managed to cover in the win over Tulsa. A fourth-and-1 carry for Chubba Hubbard that was meant to just pick up a first down and get the win, ended up being a 33-yard touchdown to get us over the 14-point spread. In the end, it doesn’t matter how it happened because as Vin Diesel once told us, “winning is winning.”

Speaking of winning, Eastern Michigan won outright as a 7-point underdog on the road, while FAU and Central Michigan came away with convincing wins. The lone loss last week was Troy, who was bottled up for much of the afternoon against Southern Miss.

That makes it three weeks straight with only one loss, and ironically, it’s always the last game that I pick. Let’s change that this week with five winners.


2019 Record: 11-3-1

*All lines are according to Bovada and are accurate at the time posted

Western Michigan Broncos vs. Syracuse Orange (Over 65.5)

It’s been rather shocking that the Orange have been held in check this season. After averaging 40.2 points per game last season, they have 50 points through three weeks. Syracuse is also allowing points in bunches the last two weeks. The Broncos are scoring a ton of points as well, but their defense allowed 51 against Michigan State. The over/under was 65 in last year meeting and they combined for 97 points. The over makes too much sense.

Miami-Ohio Redhawks vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (-39.5)

This is not the ideal to make picks, but these two teams do have a common opponent in Cincinnati and the results could not have gone any differently. The Buckeyes blanked the Bearcats, 42-0, while the RedHawks couldn’t stop Cincinnati’s ground game in a 35-13 loss. I’m usually not a fan of huge point spreads, but Ohio State should run away with this one.

UCF Knights (-12) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

I could write the usual stuff about trends and numbers here, but this pick is more about the mission the Knights are on this season. Pitt should have some confidence after keeping it close against Penn State, they aren’t an offensive juggernaut like UCF. Dillon Gabriel and the Knights offense continue their streak of scoring 30-plus points to 30 games with a convincing win on the road.

South Alabama Jaguars vs. UAB Blazers (-11)

There are some games that instantly jump out at you, and then the research immediately backs up the gut feeling. The Jaguars have issues at quarterback and are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 road games. Meanwhile, the Blazers have been incredible at home since their return to college football, going 13-0 SU and 10-2-1 ATS. UAB wins this one rather easily.

Utah State Aggies vs. San Diego State Aztecs (+4)

As I was going through the college football slate, I was legitimately stunned to see this line. San Diego State is not a team you bet against as a home underdog. The Aztecs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog, with many of those wins over qualify opponents, and have won 10 consecutive games against the Aggies. This is the perfect time to ride the home ‘dog.

Check back with us next week for more and let me know what you think in the comments below or via Twitter. Until next week, SHOW ME THE MONEY!!