If you are a college football gambler, you need to lock in Troy over 6.5 wins right now!
Action on win totals is not always the most glamorous form of betting. There are few things better than the instant satisfaction of hitting a bet placed just moments before kick-off.
That is why the casual bettor often overlooks season win totals and goes straight for the opening lines for the all-anticipated Week 1 games on Labor Day Weekend.
However, there is nothing like riding with a team through their ups and downs all season long. It is time to cash in!
Per FanDuel, the Trojans’ projected season win total is set at 6.5 games. Looking at the schedule and projected margin/win probability, the Trojans are favored in ten of their twelve games. In fact, Troy has a projected win probability of greater than 75% in five of those ten. With the level of uncertainty whenever two teams line up, we will break down each game.
Week 1 vs Campbell (8/31): WIN. Not much more to be said for this game. Troy should have no issues establishing dominance and putting the Fighting Camels away early (Running Win Total: 1).
Week 3 vs Southern Miss (9/14): WIN. No doubt that the Golden Eagles will be a tough game. However, Southern Miss will be coming off a game with SEC opponent Mississippi State. Meanwhile, Troy has a bye and an extra week to fine tune their game and prepare for Southern Miss in another home win at Veterans Memorial Stadium (Running Win Total: 2).
Week 4 @ Akron (9/21): WIN. Akron coming off a 4-8 2018 campaign with 5 straight losses to end the season will look to right the ship in 2019. By this point, Akron will have played 3 straight games, two of them on the road against Illinois and Central Michigan.
The first road game for the Trojans might present some challenges. That said, in a game between two teams with little history (22-17 victory for the Trojans in 2017), you have to assume that Troy is the better team here and leaves Akron, Ohio with their third win on the season (Running Win Total: 3).
Week 5 vs Arkansas State (9/28): LOSS. In Week 3, Arkansas State travels to Athens to face off against the Georgia Bulldogs. A week 4 game against Southern Illinois should serve as a tune-up for the Red Wolves heading into Troy for the first conference game for both squads.
In season win total betting, it is always smart to air on the side of caution. In these toss-up games, especially conference games, you want to assume that it will not go your way. In betting Troy to go over their win total, the safe play is to chalk this one up as a loss for the Trojans putting them at 3-1 through their first four games (Running Win Total: 3).
Week 6 @ Missouri (10/5): LOSS. Missouri is coming off of a bye as they get set to host the Trojans the first weekend of October. There is no reason why Clemson transfer, Kelly Bryant, and the Tigers have any issue here with Troy. Sorry Trojans fans, but do not expect another Power 5 win in the 2019 regular season (Running Win Total: 3).
Week 8 vs South Alabama (10/16): WIN. Both Troy and South Alabama will be coming off of some extra rest heading into this game. That said, this is one of those games that the Trojans cannot afford to drop if they want any shot at the Sun Belt East title. The Trojans will come out rested and on a mission as they prepare for the latter half of their 2019 season (Running Win Total: 4).
Week 10 @ Georgia State (10/26): WIN. With the game against South Alabama falling on a Wednesday, the Trojans will have a few days of extra rest as they make the short four hour trip over to Georgia State. On the other hand, the Panthers host Army the week prior in what will shape up to be a brutal game in the trenches versus the option run game of the Black Knights. Take the rested Trojans in a game they expect to be favored by two scores or more (Running Win Total: 5).
Week 11 @ Coastal Carolina (11/2): LOSS. The RPO run heavy Chanticleers may prove to be a tough test for the Trojans. Not to mention, Troy will be on the road for the second week in a row while Coastal Carolina has a bye prior to hosting the Trojans.
Although Troy should be the heavy favorite heading into this game, road favorites are always a dangerous bet, especially when the home team has an extra week to rest and game plan for the upcoming opponent. Again, you want to be cautious when betting season totals, so let’s call this one another loss for the Trojans (Running Win Total: 5).
Week 12 vs Georgia Southern (11/9): WIN. Although this will likely be another one of those toss-up games where you want to assume a loss for the essence of over betting, the Coastal Carolina game will be a good tune up for the Trojans against the triple option of the Eagles.
Granted, Georgia Southern will have a few extra days of rest as they take on App State on a Thursday (10/31). That being said, Troy’s defense will limit any explosive plays from Georgia Southern in their second straight week of facing a run heavy opponent (Running Win Total: 6).
Week 13 @ Texas State (11/16): Of course, the end of the season is when it gets interesting. A lot of folks in and around the SBC are expecting Texas State to be a deep sleeper team. Whether you buy into the hype or not, the Bobcats cannot be overlooked.
After four straight games, the Trojans will be pretty beat up. Include the fact that Troy may be looking ahead to their final two, likely season-defining, matchups with Louisiana-Lafayette and Appalachian State, and you have the perfect recipe for a let down game from the Trojans. LOSS. (Running Win Total: 6).
Week 14 @ Louisiana-Lafayette (11/23)
Week 15 vs Appalachian State (11/30)
That leaves the Ragin’ Cajuns and the Mountaineers where Troy will need to win one to go over their projected season win total of 6.5 games. Louisiana-Lafayette is the obvious choice between the two. Again, the Trojans will be playing their fifth straight game, including their second straight road game before facing Appalachian State at home.
Troy should be able to handle Louisiana-Lafayette and will likely drop the season finale to the Mountaineers. WIN/LOSS. (Running Win Total: 7).
Now, with seven wins on the season, Troy will have just squeaked over their projected win total, leaving over bettors sweating it out until the very end.
That said, if they were to win at least two out of the three against Arkansas State, Coastal Carolina, and Texas State like expected, the Trojans would be sitting at a comfortable 9-3 or even 10-2. Not only smashing the season win total but also probably vying for a spot at the top of the SBC East, depending on the season that Appalachian State had put together.
Troy over 6.5 wins on the season is a steal. Despite the coaching turnover, the Trojans return 12 all-conference starters. They return what should be a healthy Kaleb Barker behind an impressive offensive line. They return the Sun Belt preseason offensive player of the year in B.J. Smith.
At the end of the day, Troy is arguably in a better spot than they were last year, a season where the Trojans went 9-3 in the regular season. Even with slight regression, Troy should breeze through seven wins and cash in tickets for over bettors. LOCK IT IN!
Look for week-by-week ATS pick analysis on the preview write-ups for each of the Trojans’ games throughout the season.