Underdogs Against the Spread: Top Week 11 G5 Football ATS Picks

If you are looking for winning bets inside the Group of Five, you have come to the right place here at Underdogs Against the Spread.

It was an average showing for us last week with a 2-2-1 record in Week 10. It got off to a thrilling start as Houston and UCF looked to be headed towards a push, but Brendan Hayes’s safety with under two minutes to go gave us our first cover of the afternoon. As I predicted, Tulsa kept it close in the loss to Tulane. SMU got us to a push with three fourth-quarter touchdowns to keep us at a .500 record on the weekend.

Utah State - more on them in a bit - and UAB both were unexpectedly blown out for our two losses last week. The Aggies have been real rough on us this season so I will be looking for some revenge this week.

Week 11 is the introduction of MACtion and several bye weeks which limits our options for G5 winners this week. The initial College Football Playoff rankings were revealed as well, giving added importance to several games this weekend. The G5 will not be in the discussion like in year’s past, but several teams below are vying for that New Year’s Six bowl game. Here are this week’s winning picks.

Last Week: 2-2-1

2019 Record: 27-20-3

*All lines are according to Bovada and are accurate at the time this article is published

Charlotte 49ers (-13.5) vs. Texas-El Paso Miners

This pick is all about how inept UTEP is this season. Their only victory was a two-point win over Houston Baptist to start the season. The next closest game was a 10-point home loss to UTSA. Charlotte has scored 30-plus points the last two weeks in wins against North Texas and Middle Tennessee State. The 49ers will have no problems winning this game by at least two touchdowns.

UConn Huskies vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (-35)

If you have been a regular follower of this piece, you know I am not a fan of these huge spreads. But then again, they have been good to us this season so why not go after another with one of the worst - that honor goes to UMass this season - the FBS has to offer? Cincinnati enters this matchup as the highest-ranked G5 team and this is the perfect opportunity to put up some style points. The Huskies already have lost by 35 or more four times this season. This could be the last time they do so as a member of the AAC.

North Texas Mean Green vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-5.5)

These are two teams trending in opposite directions. Mason Fine gets a lot of attention for his numbers, but it is not translating to many wins. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are coming off a bye and in the running for a double-digit win season. North Texas is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against Conference USA teams. If you need any more convincing, Louisiana Tech is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with North Texas.

Utah State Aggies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (-6)

I said last week that we would be done with the Aggies if they failed us once again. Sure enough, they got blown out at home against BYU. Utah State is 1-4 ATS in their last five this season, and the same mark in their last five games against Fresno State. The Bulldogs are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 home games, and 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 against Mountain West opponents. Fresno State needs this game to stay in the hunt for a Mountain West championship appearance.

Wyoming Cowboys vs. Boise State Broncos (-13)

I love that this line is just under two touchdowns. Cowboys quarterback Sean Chambers was lost for the season last week, who led the team in not only passing, but also rushing touchdowns. Tyler Vander Waal takes over, who was benched after eight games last season. Boise State is 12-1 all-time against Wyoming, including 6-0 at home with an average win by 24.4 points per game. Broncos win big again this week.

Check back with us next week for more and let me know what you think in the comments below or via Twitter. Until next week, SHOW ME THE MONEY!!