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Underdogs Against the Spread: Best Week 12 G5 Football ATS Picks

Utah State, I have had enough. Cincinnati, let’s do it again

Connecticut v Cincinnati Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images

It is Week 12 already? Time flies when you are picking a bunch of winners at Underdogs Against the Spread.

The Mountain West continues to be rough to us, especially those Utah State Aggies. The victory at Fresno State made little sense after BYU had their way with Utah State in Logan the previous week. It was the fourth time this season the Aggies have hurt us this season. I am staying far, far away from this team the rest of the season.

The Boise State Broncos never got close to covering the 13-point spread as Wyoming made it a defensive battle. Boise State trailed or were tied for most of the game, and needed a field goal in overtime to keep their hopes of a New Year’s Six bowl alive.

And then there was those Charlotte 49ers who somehow let UTEP score 21 points in the first half. Throw out their game against the FCS opponent, and the Miners have scored more than 21 points only once all season. Charlotte got it together in the second half and picked up the win, but we needed another touchdown.

The positives were that the Cincinnati and Louisiana Tech picks did cover in dominating fashion. Louisiana Tech was particularly impressive, routing North Texas, 52-17, as the Mean Green’s disappointing season continues. Picking against UConn might be considering cheating, but I like picking winners so tally up another win there.

The regular season is winding down which gives us only a few more weeks to increase our record over .500. A good amount of Group of Five teams are on a bye this week which makes the pickings slim, but you’re damn right I still have five picks in the G5. Here are the winners for Week 12.

Last Week: 2-3

2019 Record: 29-23-3

*All lines are according to Bovada and are accurate at the time this article is published

Tulane Green Wave vs. Temple Owls (+6)

I do not like to include the Owls in this piece because they are the team I cover here at Underdog Dynasty, but I cannot wrap my head around Temple being a home underdog again. In their last 17 games as a home underdog, the Owls are 13-4 ATS with eight outright wins. Two of those outright wins came earlier in the year against ranked opponents (Maryland and Memphis). What makes this line so surprising is that Tulane is a bigger favorite than both the Terps and Tigers. The Owls need this game to keep their AAC title hopes alive and get another outright win.

#23 Navy Midshipmen vs. #16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-7)

I never would have imagined this being a meeting between two ranked opponents before the season started, but Navy enters this game with their one loss coming to Memphis, another ranked AAC team. The Mids’ triple-option offense has been as explosive as ever, with Malcolm Perry looking a lot like the player we saw two years ago. But the reality is that Notre Dame has dominated this matchup as Navy has just four wins since 1963 in the nation’s longest-running intersectional rivalry that dates back to 1927. I expect the Irish to get this win with ease.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (-12.5)

The Chanticleers have been giving up points in bunches, allowing 30 or more points in five straight, including the 48-7 home loss to Louisiana last week. Arkansas State is coming off a bye needing one more win to become bowl eligible for the ninth consecutive season. The trends point in the Red Wolves favor as they are 4-0 ATS against a team with a losing record, while the Chanticleers are 1-7 ATS against teams with a winning record. Go stAte.

Rice Owls (+14.5) vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

All the trends point the other way as Rice is winless and 0-4 ATS in their last four games, but believe it or not, Rice has kept it close most of the season. They lost by a touchdown to Army and Baylor, and forced a one-loss Louisiana Tech team into overtime. Middle Tennessee State has been difficult to figure out all year long as you never know which team is going to show up each week. Somehow, some way, Rice keeps this one tight, and hopefully the worst-case scenario is the hook helps us out.

#23 Cincinnati Bearcats (-14) vs. South Florida Bulls

You just need to look back to last week to see how this game will go. USF got absolutely nothing going at home against Temple’s defense as Jordan McCloud was sacked nine times. Cincinnati held UConn to only a field goal last week. The Bearcats have scored 35 or more points in five of their last seven and you can make a case that their defense is better than the Owls. Like I said last week, Cincinnati is currently in the lead to represent the P6, I mean G5, in the NY6 (that’s a lot of numbers there) and running up the score can benefit them with Memphis, Boise State and Navy all nipping at their heels.

Check back with us next week for more and let me know what you think in the comments below or via Twitter. Until next week, SHOW ME THE MONEY!!