We have some huge games this week in the AAC and Conference USA which will help shape the rest of the season. SMU heads to Memphis to take on the Tigers in primetime and College Gameday is coming to town for the first time in school history. This is a Top 25 matchup with possible New Year’s Six implications. There is also a massive game in Conference USA between FAU and Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky suffered a loss at Marshall and now the East Division is wide open with WKU, Marshall, FAU and Middle Tennessee all in contention. The opening lines have been released for Week 10 and here are my early leans.
Georgia Southern at App State
Spread: App State – 16.5
Georgia Southern finally showed the ability to score some points in their 41-7 over New Mexico State. Before the win over the Aggies, Georgia Southern was only averaging 22 points per game. New Mexico State is obviously not a good football team, but this is certainly the type of performance that can give the Eagles some confidence moving forward. App State is ranked 20th in the country with a perfect 7-0 record and they are 5-2 ATS. The Mountaineers have one of the top scoring offenses in all of college football averaging 41 points per game and they also have one of the top scoring defenses in the country allowing 19 points per game. App State is the better team and they will be eager for some revenge after a 20 point loss to the Eagles last season. Look for App State to dominate on Halloween night.
App State – 16.5 is the play
Navy at UConn
Total Points: 56
Navy is 6-1 and has won four games in a row. The Midshipmen are averaging 38 points per game and they lead the country in rushing with 350 yards a game. The Huskies defense is allowing almost 200 yards on the ground and 38 points per game. Navy will score between 30 or 40 points in this matchup, and I think UConn will easily do the rest. UConn has played well the past two games against Houston and UMass. They scored 56 in the win over the Minutemen and lost a close game to Houston that they easily could have won. Jack Zergiotis and the Huskies offense left about 14 points on the field as Zergiotis missed a few deep throws. I believe this game has the chance to fly over the total.
This game should go over the total of 56 Points
Old Dominion at FIU
Spread: FIU - 16
FIU had a three point lead at halftime over Middle Tennessee before everything fell apart. A monsoon hit in the second half and the Blue Raiders were able to handle the conditions while the Panthers collapsed. Middle Tennessee outscored FIU 36-0 in the second half and cruised to the easy win. FIU’s hopes of winning the conference are over, but they can still make a bowl game for the third consecutive season which would be a school record. The Bobby Wilder era may be coming to an end as the Monarchs have lost seven straight games and seem to be fading as the season goes on. Old Dominion has struggled all season averaging a little over 14 points per game, and they are last in the country in yards per game. I think FIU bounces back and wins by at least three scores Saturday in Miami.
FIU wins and covers the 16 points
FAU at Western Kentucky
Spread: WKU - 3
Western Kentucky fell behind 17-0 to Marshall and then came roaring back to tie the game before the Thundering Herd scored on a game winning drive. The Hilltoppers were led by quarterback Ty Storey who finished with 292 yards, but did have two costly turnovers. Running back Gaej Walker continued his impressive season with over 100 yards on the ground with two scores. FAU destroyed Old Dominion 41-3. The Owls jumped out to a 24-3 lead at halftime and they were never challenged. FAU played great on defense only allowing 204 yards of total offense. Quarterback Chris Robison who has played well this year left the game in the 1st half with an apparent shoulder injury and did not return. Robison is listed as questionable for Saturday’s important game. Leading rusher Malcom Davidson also left the game with an injury. WKU has allowed 11 points per game in their last three home games, and with the injuries to key members of the FAU offense I’m leaning towards Western Kentucky.
Leaning WKU - 3