Underdogs Against the Spread: Top Week 7 G5 Football ATS Picks

It took six weeks for their to finally be a losing record in our Underdogs Against the Spread. That’s what you get when you try to get too cute and go out of your comfort zone.

We were chasing a lot of points last week. Typically, I stay far away from these types of games. Notre Dame was a 46-point favorite. Wisconsin was favored by 35 points. Both games started at noon and each pitched a shutout en route to wins for us. What a fantastic start to the day.

What we could not have expected is that all four huge favorites to cover. Utah State’s offense let us down as LSU easily covered the 28-point spread. My assessment of UMass was also way off as the Minutemen might be the worst team in the FBS.

The one that really hurt was Troy and Missouri not scoring enough points to hit the total of 65. The Tigers did their part, scoring 42 points in the first half. All we need is 16 points in the second half and it’s another winning weekend.

So about that second half? The two teams combined for three points. An injury to Kelly Bryant and the Trojans offense failing to score after their opening possession left us with a losing record for the first time this year.

After feeling like a loser for the first time this season, we are getting back to what works best. We will bounce back this weekend with more winners inside the Group of Five. Below are the picks for Week 7.

Last Week: 2-3

2019 Record: 18-10-2

*All lines are according to Bovada and are accurate at the time this article is published

Ball State Cardinals vs. Eastern Michigan Eagles (-1)

The Cardinals pulled off an incredible comeback on the road last week as it was only their third win on the road in conference play over the last five years. Now they are on the road again against a team that has beaten them by 42 and 22 points in their last two meetings. Add in that Eastern Michigan had a bye last week and it’s hard not to pick the home team in this one.

BYU Cougars (-5) vs. South Florida Bulls

These are two teams with matching records, but they could not be any more different in how they got to this point. BYU has played three Top 25 teams this season, and was wins over Tennessee and USC. USF has wins over UConn and South Carolina State, but were blown out at home against Wisconsin and SMU. It won’t be as ugly as those outcomes, but the Bulls haven’t shown they can stop anyone. Take the Cougars.

Navy Midshipmen vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-1)

Let’s just call this a pick ‘em game as some sports books have Navy as the favorite in this one. Tulsa has a very underrated defense that has kept them in tight ball games with ranked opponents in Michigan State and Oklahoma State. Tulsa quarterback Zach Smith did enough to win in last week’s triple overtime meltdown to SMU, and the Golden Hurricane defense will hold Malcolm Perry and the Navy in check for their first conference win.

Fresno State Bulldogs (+3) vs. Air Force Falcons

The Bulldogs have a been a regular play in UATS and for good reason as they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games. They also have had extra time to prepare for the Air Force option with a bye last week. Meanwhile, the Falcons are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games.

Wyoming Cowboys vs. San Diego State Aztecs (Over 38)

This might be a sucker bet, but you almost never see any football game with a total in the 30s. Both teams have terrific defenses (the Aztecs have been spectacular thus far), but these two teams always seem to score more than is expected when they meet. Both will score at least 20 points to give us a late night win.

Check back with us next week for more and let me know what you think in the comments below or via Twitter. Until next week, SHOW ME THE MONEY!!