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SB Nation’s own Bill Connelly has released his S&P+ projections for 2018 and much like we did for the C-USA, we’re here to breakdown how the computers see the upcoming football season shaking out.
Earlier this offseason, we released an early addition of power rankings for the league and you’ll see that S&P+ disagrees with us a bit on quite a few teams.
2018 S&P+ Projections
| Rank | Team | Recruiting Impact | Returning Production | Weighted 5-year | Proj. S&P+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | Recruiting Impact | Returning Production | Weighted 5-year | Proj. S&P+ |
| 63 | Appalachian State | 109 | 34 | 51 | 1.8 |
| 66 | Arkansas State | 89 | 41 | 81 | 1.4 |
| 78 | Troy | 97 | 55 | 93 | -1.1 |
| 106 | Georgia Southern | 106 | 104 | 67 | -8.5 |
| 107 | ULM | 102 | 95 | 122 | -9.1 |
| 109 | South Alabama | 118 | 101 | 90 | -9.5 |
| 113 | Georgia State | 94 | 109 | 121 | -11.1 |
| 118 | Coastal Carolina | 128 | 113 | 99 | -12.1 |
| 121 | UL-Lafayette | 120 | 119 | 95 | -13.3 |
| 123 | Texas State | 100 | 122 | 128 | -14.6 |
Clear Upper Class
Much like in 2016 and 2017, the conference title will be a three-team race as Appalachian State, Arkansas State, and Troy appear to be heads and shoulders above the rest of the conference. Each program has a star coaching the team and even though two four-year starting quarterbacks have been lost, it’s not expected for either team to slip up much.
Floor is Rising
More likely than not, the Sun Belt will again be considered the worst conference in college football again in 2018 but there is no doubt this league is improving. With Idaho and New Mexico State now no longer in the fold, this is a 10-team league that appears to have a bright future.
Everett Withers and Texas State should take a big leap in year three, while expectations are high for new coaches Steve Campbell and Billy Napier at South Alabama and UL-Lafayette. respectively. The league is slowly improving and that is a good thing.
Sophomore Slump
Shawn Elliott did a remarkable job in his first season at Georgia State as the Panthers made it to the postseason and recorded their first bowl win in program history. However, this was a team that appeared to overachieve as they were excellent in one-possession games. The Panthers actually were pretty bad in home games and could be due some bad bounces. They also will have to replace quarterback Conner Manning. It could be a disappointing year in Atlanta.
Is Georgia Southern a sleeper?
It was a brutal season in Statesboro, so things cannot get much worse as Chad Lunsford takes over as the full-time head coach for the Eagles. Lunsford made two really good coordinator hires and with some talent returning we may be sleeping on the Eagles in 2018.