Now that’s what I’m talking about.
After back-to-back weeks of getting destroyed by the book, it was a 5-0 record in Week 12. The key? Going back to old reliable. Here is what I said in last week’s piece:
“What do you do when you’ve been getting hammered for consecutive weeks? You go to the teams that have been good to you all season long.”
That’s exactly what happened. App State, FIU and UCF all covered the spread, while the two overs involving UAB and Georgia Southern hit as well. All five of those programs have been very good to us this season.
There is one more week of regular season action to get over .500 on the year. It’s a shorter slate of games to choose from this Saturday with several games being played on Black Friday, but there is still plenty of action to cash in on this Saturday. Below are my picks for Week 13.
Last week: 5-0
*All lines are according to Scores and Odds and are accurate at the time posted
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. FIU Panthers (+3)
I’m honestly confused about this line. FIU opened as a 1.5-point favorite and for some reason it has shifted to three points for the road team. Thanks, Vegas. The Panthers have been one of those teams that have been good to us all season, while Marshall has not been. Considering FIU has won the last two matchups convincingly and have put themselves in position to win their division for the first time in program history, there is no reason not to back the home dog.
Navy Midshipmen vs. Tulane Green Wave (-7)
While you never expect the young men at Navy to give up, this year has been a wash for them and the only thing that matters to them at this point in the season is getting the win against Army. Meanwhile, it will be Senior Day for Tulane and they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Green Wave need a win to become bowl eligible for only the second time since 2000 and get it done with a double-digit victory.
You bet I’m backing the Eagles again in a rivalry game in which they’ve been on the wrong side of the last two meetings between the schools. The Panthers are 0-5-1 ATS this season against a team with a winning record, while Southern is 8-3 ATS on the season. Georgia State won’t be able to stop the Eagles strong running game and should have no problem winning by two touchdowns.
UAB Blazers (-3) vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Both teams are coming off losses to ranked Power Five programs, but neither should be feeling bad about themselves as they both took positives away from their losses. MTSU needs help from Marshall - which they won’t get based on our pick above - to sneak into the Conference USA title game, while UAB already knows they’re playing at home in said championship game. You can make the argument that the Blue Raiders have more to play for, but UAB has yet to lose in conference play and have been excellent for us all season. I’m not getting off that bandwagon now.
Utah State Aggies vs. Boise State Broncos (Over 66)
The Broncos have played stellar defense for much of the season, but the Aggies have been one of the best offense in the nation this season. All the trends lead us to the over as well. The over is 11-4 in the Aggies’ last 15 road games, 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings between these two programs and 4-1-1 in the last six meetings on the blue turf. End your Saturday night watching some fireworks between the two best teams in the Mountain West.
Check back with us next week for more and let me know what you think in the comments below or via Twitter. Until next week, SHOW ME THE MONEY!!