Welcome to November, where the real money is made.
It’s been a long time coming as we finally had that breakout week in which we finished 4-1. Houston and Middle Tennessee State each covered the spread with ease. SMU was a sure winner once they went into overtime and while it was closer than we anticipated, UAB got the job done as well.
The only loss last week was taking the over in the matchup between UMass and UConn. The one downside of writing this in advance is that weather is still an unknown at the time. A nor’easter hit the New England area and brought heavy rain and wind to this game. With that said, I did give everyone a warning in advance.
Weather in East Hartford will play a factor in #UMass v. #UConn https://t.co/cMC6KXiIWR— Joe Serpico (@JoeSerp) October 27, 2018
I’ll still take the loss for the sake of keeping the numbers tidy, but it really should have been a 5-0 mark last week.
Now that November is here, it’s time to go on that magical run like last season. Here are my picks for Week 10.
Last week: 4-1
*All lines are according to Scores and Odds and are accurate at the time posted
Air Force Falcons vs. Army Black Knights (-6.5)
This matchup is never sexy because both teams feature triple-option offenses, but the Commander-In-Chief trophy is on the line and Army’s for the taking with a win. These games are usually close, hence the one-score spread, but the Knights are 3-0-1 in their last four games against Mountain West Conference opponents. With this being a home game and the Knights running game clicking at this time, Army should have no problem winning by a touchdown.
Georgia Southern Eagles (-7.5) vs. ULM Warhawks
Not only are the Eagles sporting a 7-1 record, but they have the same mark against the spread as well. ULM simply doesn’t have the offense to keep up with Georgia Southern as they have scored 21 or less in five of their eight games this season. On the flip side, the Eagles defense has held opponents to fewer than 14 in five of their eight. Southern keeps the momentum going from last week’s win over App State with a three-score victory.
Tulane Green Wave vs. South Florida Bulls (-7)
USF is coming off their first loss of the season, a 21-point beatdown on the road to Houston. Meanwhile, Tulane is still unsure of their quarterback situation as they have flip flopped the position over the last few weeks. The Bulls couldn’t pull off the fourth quarter magic that kept them previously undefeated, but they will come out fired up from the start to avenge last week’s loss.
UConn Huskies (+18) vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
UConn is bad. Really bad. But Tulsa has no business being an 18-point favorite against anyone. Tulsa has played in mostly tight contests all season long and I wouldn’t expect anything different here. As dreadful as the Huskies have been, they are averaging more points on the season than the Golden Hurricane.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+23) vs. Mississippi St. Bulldogs
There are few non-conference games that we get this late into the season, and since we are calling this Underdogs Against the Spread, this is the perfect opportunity to back a G5 underdog against a P5 opponent. La Tech is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against SEC opponents, and with Mississippi State coming off a huge win over Texas A&M last week and a date with Alabama next week, this is a prime letdown spot for them.
Check back with us next week for more and let me know what you think in the comments below or via Twitter. Until next week, SHOW ME THE MONEY!!