I really was feeling myself heading into last week. Boy, did that backfire and it is how it all went down that’s gut-wrenching.
Here is what I said in last week’s Underdogs Against the Spread:
“Usually I struggle to find five bets that I feel pretty confident about, but this week, I’m a big fan of everything listed.”
Let’s throw out the UConn pick. I’m absolutely embarrassed by it. The funny part about it is the Huskies scored on their first possession and I told myself they were going to live up to everything I said a week ago. They wouldn’t score again. I aired out my thoughts about UConn in our latest pawdcast episode.
But the other four games were just so brutal to watch. Sure, South Alabama and Appalachian State hit the over, but it was a lot scarier than need be. The two teams combined for 49 points in the first half and the number was 56.5. It wasn’t until App State scored a touchdown with 3:04 remaining in the game until they went over the total.
UTSA looked to be good at the half, but only scored on two field goals in the second half for a one-point ATS loss. Arkansas State and FAU both lost in the final minute when there was hope for wins. A-State couldn’t hold on for overtime, but how the Owls lost is a true bad beat. FAU led by a touchdown before Middle Tennessee State not only scored, but went for the two-point conversion to win the game. No overtime to sneak out a win or maybe a push. Just an outright loss because of the two-point conversion. All of this happened within minutes of each other too.
So after going 7-3 the prior two weeks, it was a dreadful 1-4 mark last week. That puts us five games under .500 with half the season to go. We live by the motto “you win some and you lose some” and this week we will be back on the winning side. Here are my picks for Week 6:
Last week: 1-4
*All lines are according to Scores and Odds and are accurate at the time posted
I’ve backed Marshall the last two weeks and it hasn’t worked in my favor so the third time will be the charm. MTSU is 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games and is in a letdown spot after a last-minute, come-from-behind win against FAU last week.
Northern Illinois Huskies (-2.5) vs. Ball State Cardinals
While both teams enter the game with identical 2-3 records, NIU has played the much tougher schedule with losses to Iowa, Utah and Florida State on their resume. The Huskies are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between the two programs, including 4-0 at Ball State. I expect a double-digit victory on the road for Northern Illinois.
We are backing another MAC team on the road this week in the Bobcats. Ohio is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, while Kent State is 1-5 ATS in their last six conference games. Ohio has been the class of the MAC for some time now, while Kent State has taken its toll of large defeats. It was a 63-17 beatdown in favor of the Bobcats, and while it’s hard to imagine another 46-point win on the road, winning by at least three scores is in the cards.
Colorado State Rams (-2.5) vs. San Jose State Spartans
Taking three road favorites is usually a recipe for disaster, but I’m picking against some of the worst teams in the country in Ball, Kent and San Jose State. The Rams have been far from stellar this season and are coming off a loss to a FCS team, but they excel where the Spartans are weakest. Colorado State is averaging just over 320 yards passing which ranks 13th in the nation. On the flip side, San Jose State is 127th against the pass.
Wyoming Cowboys vs. Hawaii Warriors (-3)
If you have followed me over the last two seasons, it’s no secret that Hawaii is one of my favorite teams to bet and it has more to do with them playing that midnight game than anything else. And now that they are back offensively, it’s hard not to get excited about them. These are two teams on opposite ends in scoring offense as Hawaii is averaging 42 points per game, compared to 18.4 for Wyoming. Simply put, Hawaii’s offense is too much for the Cowboys.
Check back with us next week for more and let me know what you think in the comments below or via Twitter. Until next week, SHOW ME THE MONEY!!