Underdogs Against the Spread: Top Week 9 G5 Football ATS Picks

There are some good weeks and some bad ones. You also have some weeks were you go “what just happened?”

That was Week 8 for us.

Week 8 saw some absolutely wild finishes, but none was crazier than how Western Kentucky lost on Saturday. Three untimed plays at the end of regulation went from WKU going for the game-winning field goal - which wouldn’t have covered regardless - to losing the game with Old Dominion kicking the game winner instead. Our night ended with one of the most crushing defeats you will ever see in football.

Army looked to be in cruise control as the fourth quarter was winding down, but Miami-Ohio scored two touchdowns in the last five minutes of the game to send it into overtime. The tying score came on a fourth down play with 17 seconds remaining in the game. The Redhawks ruined any shot at stealing a win when they went for two in overtime.

And then, there was the news just before kickoff that McKenzie Milton would not play against ECU. That’s the kind of information you would like to know well before taking UCF to hit the over. Instead, they were well short of the 65-point total with their start quarterback on the sidelines.

Houston and Western Michigan came through with wins to make the day not a complete disaster, but we are desperately trying to get back over .500. We will keep firing away until that happens. Below are my picks for Week 9.

Last week: 2-3

Overall: 17-22-1

*All lines are according to Scores and Odds and are accurate at the time posted

Massachusetts Minutemen vs. UConn Huskies (Over 68.5)

This number opened at 74.5 and has gone down as the week progressed. Why? I’m not sure. UMass’ defense is giving up 42.2 points per game and UConn is even worse at 51.4. The Minutemen have proven that they can score some points, scoring at least 42 points in three straight prior to last week. We just need a few scores from David Pindell against UMass’ shoddy defense to get us to the magic number.

South Florida Bulls vs. Houston Cougars (-7)

USF is undefeated and the ranked team, but they have played in close games throughout the season and have needed fourth-quarter comebacks to stay unbeaten. They won’t be able to do the same against an explosive Houston offense. This is the week those slow starts will come back to haunt USF.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-4) vs. Old Dominion Monarchs

I know. I know. ODU has burned me three times already this season, including last week. With that said, their two wins are about as fluky as it gets, while the Blue Raiders have played in tough matchups since opening conference play. Middle Tennessee needs this game to stay in the hunt for the C-USA East and wins this one by at least a touchdown.

Cincinnati Bearcats vs. SMU Mustangs (+8.5)

Cincy is coming off an overtime loss to Temple, the best opponent the Bearcats have faced yet. SMU enters the game with a 3-4 record, but their four losses have come at North Texas, Michigan and UCF, and a home loss to TCU. Cincinnati is getting points based on their record, but SMU clearly has played the better competition. This is too many points on the road so we’ll gladly back the Mustangs, and it wouldn’t be much of a shocker if they won outright.

UAB Blazers (15.5) vs. Texas-El Paso Miners

This is one of those games you just don’t overthink. UAB is averaging 33.4 points per game, while UTEP is ranked 125th in scoring offense at 17.6 points per game. On the other side of the ball, the Blazers are eighth-best in the nation in scoring defense, while the Miners are allowing 31.6 points per game. UAB should have no problem winning this game by three touchdowns.

Check back with us next week for more and let me know what you think in the comments below or via Twitter. Until next week, SHOW ME THE MONEY!!