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Underdogs Against The Spread: Top Week 10 College Football ATS Picks

We backed mostly road favorites last week. This week's winners feature some rather large underdogs.

Hope you have hopped aboard this money train as it was another great weekend of betting action in the G5 in Week 9. My exact words before posting last week’s winners were “I’m feeling more confident about this week’s schedule of games.” I was dead on with that statement.

After enduring our first losing week in Week 8, we came back strong with a 4-1 mark that puts our winning percentage at 65 percent this season. Many of the picks were bold, as three of the winning picks were road favorites. We also got some good fortune with one of the picks as for some strange reason the Akron line flipped from -3 to +3 overnight. We thank the people of Vegas for the assist on that one.

Our only loss was Florida International’s shocking win on the road over Marshall. I was advised to stay away from that line - you were right, Cyrus - but I never expected FIU to pull off the upset. However, Louisiana Tech, Arkansas State and San Diego State all did their part on the road to make it a fruitful weekend.

I would like to note that since I post this on Friday’s, I did not include Temple +8 in the picks, but that was easy money. I called the Owls upset in our P6 Pick’em released yesterday. Don’t worry. I have plenty of more bets to give you, and many of them are true underdogs against the spread. Let’s keep it rolling this week with another week of winners.

Season record: 15-8

*All lines courtesy of Bovada and are accurate as of this posting

East Carolina Pirates (+24.5) at Houston Cougars

If you’re a regular listener to our Underdog Pawdcast, you know my feelings about ECU this season. We have also gone against them multiple times this season. This one comes down to how Houston’s offense has looked in recent weeks. They are in a huge letdown spot after defeating USF last week, starting their third different quarterback of the season and will be without their starting left tackle. The Cougars only blowout win was against Rice and they are 1-4 ATS against ECU in Houston. While the defense is really bad, Thomas Sirk and the ECU offense should score enough points to stay within the spread.

Nevada Wolf Pack (+21.5) at Boise State Broncos

This line is way too high for a Nevada team that has no trouble scoring points. The Wolf Pack has only one loss by more than 20 points this season and are a ridiculous 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine November games. Meanwhile, Boise State is 0-10 ATS in their last 10 home games. Nevada has covered three straight, and that streak stays alive this week.

UCF Knights at SMU Mustangs (+14.5)

The Knights have dominated teams for much of the season, but they haven’t squared off against an offense with the firepower that the Mustangs possess either. A two-touchdown spread seems a bit high for two of the better teams in the American Athletic Conference as I expect Courtland Sutton and Trey Quinn to give the UCF defense problems throughout the game.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles (+7) at Tennessee Volunteers

The Vols are a mess and that’s putting it politely. There aren’t many people in Knoxville that are too happy that Butch Jones still has a job after losing four straight. Tennessee’s offense has been atrocious, while Southern Miss’ D has been stout for much of the season. This game also means more for Southern Miss as they are one win away from being bowl-eligible and coming off a double-digit loss at home against UAB. This could be the nail in the coffin for Jones as the Golden Eagles have a realistic shot of pulling off the upset.

BYU Cougars at Fresno State Bulldogs (-13)

BYU is just a bad football team. They are coming off their first win of the year after defeating San Jose State at home last week, but that is the only time they covered a spread this season. On the flip side, the Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS thus far, after failing to cover against UNLV last week. Fresno State gets back on track this week in our only pick featuring a favorite.

These are my picks for Week 10. Let me know what you think in the comments below or via Twitter. Until next week, SHOW ME THE MONEY!!