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Underdogs Against The Spread: Top Week 12 College Football ATS Picks

Our wisest bets include every Owls team in action, as well as a couple over/under picks.

NCAA Football: Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

That’s how you rebound from a bad week. After a 1-4 mark in Week 10, Week 11 was a lot more generous to us. A late backdoor cover cost us a perfect weekend, but can’t complain about a 4-1 finish.

Marshall was dominant for much of the game against WKU, entering the fourth quarter with a 30-10 lead. Unfortunately, that was all the scoring for the Herd and two WKU touchdown drives, the last of which came with 3:02 to go, and the cover was out of reach.

That loss didn’t sting too much after Temple’s win over Cincinnati on Friday night. Florida Atlantic and SMU covered on the road, and it’s always a good feeling when you take an over for a game and you’re only a touchdown short at halftime.

That’s two of the last three weeks with a 4-1 record, and let’s do it again in Week 12. This week’s selections feature every Owls team and a couple over/unders to consider.

Season record: 20-13

*All lines courtesy of Bovada and are accurate as of this posting

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (over 56)

Let’s kick off the weekend with a Conference USA matchup in which the total is too low for these two offenses. All the trends favor the over as it has hit in the last five meetings between the two schools. Also factor in that the total has gone over in four of the last five games and over in four of the last six at home for the Hilltoppers. The total has been over 70 in the last two meetings, and with this one sitting at 56, it sounds like a no-brainer to go with the over.

UCF Knights at Temple Owls (+14)

Let me just copy what I said in my preview for this game this week: “Temple is playing their best football of the season and it’s Senior Day at The Linc. There would be no more emphatic way to end their playing careers at Temple by becoming the program’s winningest class with a win over an undefeated team. While it won’t happen, this is going to be the dog fight the Knights need to prepare themselves for the War on I-4 next week.”

Rice Owls at Old Dominion Monarchs (-8.5)

The Monarchs have been one of the hardest teams to gauge in college football. They scored just six points in a home win against Charlotte two weeks ago, and followed that with a 37-30 victory on the road against FIU, whom we will touch on in a minute. Rice isn’t hard to figure out. They’re just bad, with only one loss coming by less than double digits. ODU will not lay another dud like they did against the 49ers and give the Owls another double-digit loss this year.

FIU Panthers (+14.5) vs. Florida Atlantic Owls

I’ve been on the Lane Train for much of the season, but this number just makes no sense. The Owls have been firing on all cylinders as of late, but this is the first conference game where they’ve been favored by more than a touchdown, and it’s two scores and the hook. FIU has also won outright in their last three games as an underdog, and while I don’t think that will be the case this week, they will keep it under the 14.5-point line.

UConn Huskies vs. Boston College Eagles (under 51)

It’s not a fun way to end our Saturday hoping that two teams do not score, but everything points to this game going under the total. Both teams will enter the game with backup quarterbacks running the offense, and the weather calls for rain and wind for much of the contest. Boston College has gone over the total only four in 12 non-conference games over the last three seasons, while UConn has gone over the total just twice in their last 11 non-conference games. Last season, the Eagles defeated UConn, 30-0, and the outcome should be similar this season.

These are my picks for Week 12. Let me know what you think in the comments below or via Twitter. Until next week, SHOW ME THE MONEY!!