Underdogs Against The Spread: Top Week 11 College Football ATS Picks

Woof.

One week after posting a 4-1 mark and maybe doing a little bragging about it, - okay, a lot of bragging. I called it a money train - I was bound to jinx myself and come away with a dud the following week. That’s exactly what happened.

As I pointed in last week’s picks, I was onboard for the Temple win, but can’t add that to my record because this article is posted every Friday. Why I decided to back ECU after being harsh on them all season long is beyond me. I should have known with the line at 24.5 points, they would end up losing by 25. Nevada couldn’t score in the second half, Southern Miss couldn’t come up with a fourth-quarter touchdown to get us a push and even with the line dropping to 10 points, Fresno State never held a double-digit lead.

Thankfully, SMU gave us one winner on the afternoon as they were able to keep up with UCF’s offense for most of the game. The end result was a 1-4 day, and if it was your first time following along, it was just one rough day. We will get back on the right side of the ship this week, including that team that gave us our only win last week.

Season record: 16-12

*All lines courtesy of Bovada and are accurate as of this posting

Temple Owls (-3) at Cincinnati Bearcats

We are not missing out on Temple again because they don’t play on Saturday. Ever since the Owls named Frank Nutile the quarterback, the offense has looked the best it has all season. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has been one of the most inconsistent teams in the American Athletic Conference. Temple needs this game in order to remain bowl-eligible, giving them them a lot more to play for at this time of the season.

SMU Mustangs (+4) at Navy Midshipmen

These are two teams with contrasting styles of offense that are both effective, but one has a healthy man under center and the other does not. The team that does not (Navy) needs a healthy Zach Abey in order to keep up with Ben Hicks, Courtland Sutton and Trey Quinn. I expect SMU to win this game outright so this is an easy decision for me to take them as a 4-point underdog.

Florida Atlantic Owls (-4.5) at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Call me a sucker, but I’m all aboard the Lane Train. The Owls are rolling on offense and come into the game 4-1 ATS against conference opponents. Kiffin might not care about covering when at home, but he will have no problem doing so on the road this week.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Marshall Thundering Herd (-13)

Everything points in Marshall’s favor in this one. The Herd are looking to bounce back after back-to-back losses against two of Conference USA’s best. The Hilltoppers have been dreadful on the ground and to make matter worse, quarterback Mike White is banged up. Injuries along the offensive line and WKU defense have Marshall licking their chops waiting to get after it. Even if White does suit up for this one, the Herd should have no problem coming away with a two-touchdown victory.

Boise State Broncos at Colorado State Rams (over 58)

This number stunned me a bit for two teams that each average over 30 points per game. The Broncos offense is red hot as of late, scoring 41 points in back-to-back games. The Rams are coming off a disappointing offensive output against Wyoming and will certainly be looking to rebound. Factor in that four of their last six meetings have gone over the total and this seems like a no-brainer to me. Plus, if you’re going to stay up until almost 2 am on the East Coast to watch this one, you want some fireworks to keep you awake.

These are my picks for Week 11. Let me know what you think in the comments below or via Twitter. Until next week, SHOW ME THE MONEY!!