Underdogs Against The Spread: Top Week 9 College Football ATS Picks

Week 8 started off looking awfully rough, as the first three picks could not cover the spread. WKU trailed, 31-21, entering the fourth quarter so a cover there would have been a miracle. If you’ve listened to our AAC pawdcast, you heard my opinion on Tulsa’s loss to UConn. To top it all off, Idaho opened the scoring with a 7-0 lead, then allowed five first-quarter touchdowns, and trailed 51-14 at the half.

That ensured the first losing week for me this season, but let’s be honest, it was bound to happen at some point. Fortunately for us, Miami (Ohio) came away with a comfortable cover and FAU’s dismantling of North Texas made the weekend less painful.

That still puts me over 60 percent for the season, and unlike last weekend’s slate of games, I’m feeling more confident about this week’s schedule of games. Here are my winners for Week 9:

Season record: 11-7

*All lines courtesy of Bovada and are accurate as of this posting

Buffalo Bulls at Akron Zips (-2.5)

This pick comes down to the season splits for both teams. Buffalo is 1-3 on the road, averaging just over 16 points per game. Meanwhile, Akron is 2-1 at home, 3-1 in the conference and 4-1 ATS in their last five MAC games. Furthermore, the Zips are 6-1 straight up at home against the Bulls. This is another home game where Akron gets a win, and with the number being less than a field goal, it’s great value.

Florida International Golden Panthers at Marshall Thundering Herd (-17)

While the records look great for both teams, Marshall has been the more impressive team. FIU has played a soft conference schedule, while Marshall’s only loss of the season came against a one-loss NC State team. Marshall’s offense is rolling, while the defense isn’t getting the attention they deserve. The Herd are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and Marshall is looking for revenge in this one after a disappointing 31-14 loss on the road to FIU last season.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-13) at Rice Owls

The Bulldogs have won the last two meetings in emphatic fashion, winning by 46 points last season and 25 on the road in 2015. Five of Rice’s six losses have been by double digits, and even though LA Tech is banged up, the Owls can’t keep up. I expect an outcome similar to that of two years ago so that’s why I’m backing the Bulldogs.

Arkansas State Red Wolves (-3) at New Mexico State Aggies

These are two teams coming off wins, but they couldn’t be more different. A-State rolled the Ragin Cajuns, 47-3, last week, while the Aggies squeaked out a win against a Georgia Southern team that fired its head coach. The Red Wolves are 15-4 ATS versus conference opponents over the last three seasons, and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings with New Mexico State. Even on the road, back Arkansas State to cover the low number.

San Diego State Aztecs (-9) vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

This pick comes down to the pure dominance the Aztecs have enjoyed in this series. San Diego State is 11-2 ATS against Hawaii, including an impressive 6-1 away from the mainland. On the contrary, Hawaii has not covered the spread in five straight, and are 4-12 ATS at home the last three seasons. The Aztecs won 55-0 last season, and coming off back-to-back losses, they will pour it on in this one.

These are my picks for Week 9. Let me know what you think in the comments below or via Twitter. Until next week, SHOW ME THE MONEY!!