Forget amateurs like AP Top 25, the USA TODAY Coaches Poll, the College Playoff Selection Committee, Phil Steele, and ESPN FPI. When it comes to projecting college football winners, nobody beats the number-crunchers and leg-breakers in Sin City. Las Vegas released its college football win totals for every FBS program, and I sacrificed time with my family to extrapolate the Underdogs from those under programs you probably read about on ESPN.
The Sun Belt
Appalachian St. Mountaineers 8.5
Georgia Southern Eagles 8
Arkansas State Red Wolves 7.5
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 6.5
Troy Trojans 6
Georgia State Panthers 4.5
Idaho Vandals 3.5
ULM Warhawks 3
South Alabama Jaguars 3
Texas State Bobcats 3
New Mexico State Aggies 3
Conference USA
Marshall Thundering Herd 8.5
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 8.5
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 8
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 7.5
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 7.5
FIU Panthers 6.5
Rice Owls 6
Old Dominion Monarchs 5
Texas-El Paso Miners 5
Florida Atlantic Owls 4.5
Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 4
Charlotte 49ers 2.5
North Texas Mean Green 2
The American
Houston Cougars 9.5
South Florida Bulls 8.5
Temple Owls 8.5
Memphis Tigers 6.5
Cincinnati Bearcats 6.5
Navy Midshipmen 6.5
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 6.5
East Carolina Pirates 5.5
Connecticut Huskies 5
UCF Knights 5
SMU Mustangs 3.5
Tulane Green Wave 3.5
Mountain West
Boise State Broncos 10.5
San Diego State Aztecs 8.5
Air Force Falcons 8
New Mexico Lobos 7.5
Utah State Aggies 6.5
UNLV Rebels 5.5
San Jose State Spartans 5
Colorado State Rams 4.5
Wyoming Cowboys 3.5
Hawaii Warriors 2.5
The MAC
Northern Illinois Huskies 8.5
Western Michigan Broncos 8.5
Ohio University Bobcats 7.5
Bowling Green Falcons 7
Central Michigan Chippewas 7
Toledo Rockets 6.5
Buffalo Bulls 5.5
Akron Zips 5
Kent State Golden Flashes 4.5
Ball State Cardinals 4.5
Miami-Ohio Redhawks 3.5
Eastern Michigan Eagles 3
Massachusetts Minutemen 2.5
Independent
Army Black Knights 4.5
BYU Cougars 8
Hot Takes
- Congrats to the North Texas Mean Green, projected to win the fewest games in the FBS this year.
- Sincere congrats to Boise State, who joins the Clemson Tigers as Vegas' highest projected winners at 10.5.
- The American and CUSA looks strong, both 7 teams projected to be bowl eligible