Choosing C-USA: Week 6 Predictions For Conference USA

Last week was pretty ho-hum in Conference USA as no major upsets occurred. I almost went a perfect 6-0 in predictions but FIU ruined that by defeating FAU. This week conference play continues as Old Dominion is the only team in action who will be playing an out of-conference game.

Choosing C-USA record: 43-10

Game of the Week

Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech (WKU -2.5)

After defeating Houston Baptist last week, Western Kentucky will begin their title defense in earnest as there will be nothing but conference games from here on out for the Hilltoppers. They will also be going for a bit of history too as their 13-game winning streak against C-USA teams is one shy of a record for most wins straight in conference play. In order to get the record they will face a tough Louisiana Tech team on the road.

Don’t be fooled by Louisiana Tech’s 2-3 record as they are battled tested. Their losses have come against teams with a combined record of 11-2. They were seconds away from defeating Arkansas and C-USA East favorite Middle Tennessee on the road and enter this matchup needing a win to keep up with Southern Miss for the C-USA West division title.

Both teams have dynamic receivers in Trent Taylor and Taywan Taylor but I see the game coming down to whether Louisiana Tech can limit WKU’s explosive plays. The Hilltoppers are one of the best teams in the country in getting chunk plays as they rank 3rd in IsoPP and 7th in Passing IsoPP.

Joshua Lindsey-USA TODAY Sports

Tech’s defense has had experience going against great quarterback-play in Patrick Maholmes and Brent Stockstill and the results didn’t fare too well for them. They rank 90th in Passing IsoPP for the season. Mike White has proven to be a capable replacement for Brandon Doughty, passing for 1367 with 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions but can he be as good as Stockstill and Maholmes?

It took Stockstill a half to figure out Tech’s defense but he had the caveat of being at home. On the road White is going to have to keep his composure and not do anything out of the ordinary.

On defense WKU continues to be underrated as they have fared well against the run all season. Against Vanderbilt they limited them to 2.6 yards per carry. Jared Craft had his best game of the season for Louisiana Tech last week against UTEP as he rushed for 146 yards and in order for Tech to keep WKU’s explosive offense off the field he’s going to have to produce again.

S&P+ gives WKU a 60 percent chance to win on the road and I think that’s a bit too high as I see this game as a coin flip. WKU is an experienced group but they’ve never been in this spot with Mike White as the quarterback. How he performs will dictate whether or not WKU escapes Ruston with a win.

Louisiana Tech has come really close to puling off upsets this year and I think with the home crowd they will come even closer. I trust Jeff Brohm a lot more than Skip Holtz so I’m taking WKU in a game that will go down to the wire.

Western Kentucky 38 Louisiana Tech 35

The Rest of C-USA...

Charlotte at FAU

Both teams are struggling but despite the negativity at FAU surrounding their 1-4 start I’m going to go with the Owls in a game that’s closer than expected.

FAU 34 Charlotte 21

Southern Miss at UTSA

I thought UTSA could keep this close but with the Roadrunners still not settling on a quarterback I’ll take the Golden Eagles. Expect Nick Mullens to have a field day against this secondary.

Southern Miss 48 UTSA 24

UMass at Old Dominion

UMass has already taken down one C-USA team in FIU but Old Dominion has a better foundation than the Panthers. ODU has been firing on all cylinders their last two games and I think they continue that momentum with next week’s game against Western Kentucky on the horizon.

Old Dominion 30 UMass 21

Marshall at North Texas

Marshall was bullied by P5 teams (and Akron) all September so I see them taking out their frustration on a North Texas team that’s not there as far as talent.

Marshall 50 North Texas 21

FIU at UTEP

We’ll see if Ron Cooper has what it takes to lead a football team as FIU could win this game if their mind is in the right place. With Ryan Metz out with a concussion I don’t see how the UTEP offense can keep FIU’s defense off balanced enough to stop Aaron Jones. I’ll go with FIU in a slight upset.

FIU 30 UTEP 23