Location: Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama
Time: 5:30 pm ET/4:40 pm CT
Radio: Appalachian IMG Sports Radio Network and Ohio IMG Sports Radio Network
Weather: Clear with temperatures dipping from the 50's to the 30's by night.
Line: App State -7.5, Over/Under at 55
When Appalachian State has the ball
The Mountaineers are good on offense. Damn good. They're explosive, efficient, and take advantage of scoring opportunities when presented. A strong offensive line paves the way for all of this success as the Mountaineers are able to open up holes in the run game as noted in App State's morbidly high rushing opportunity rate.
Ohio excels at stuffing the run but also gives up way too many long rushes as shown in the disparity between Ohio's opponent rushing opportunity rate and points per play on the ground. The Bobcats' defense prevents long plays through the air very well so the Mountaineers' home runs will likely come through the rushing game if at all.
When Ohio has the ball
Ohio's offense is sound and well-balanced, but they don't particularly stand out anywhere in the numbers. The Bobcats are below average in offensive explosion which, when combined with a low mark in finishing drives, prevents Ohio from scoring as many points as they're capable of. In contrast, Appalachian State's defense is a stone wall in the red zone. The Mountaineers restrict big plays from opposing offenses so the slow grind to the red zone that the Bobcats relied on this season may prove insufficient in the Camellia Bowl.
This one might get a little lopsided. The two teams aren't night-and-day different, but when one team excels at being explosive on offense and the other excels at... well, moving the ball, there's the chance for the game to get out of hand quickly. Factor in most of App State's strengths lining up with a lot of Ohio's biggest weaknesses, and you've suddenly got what will likely be an easy 11th win for the Mountaineers.
Appalachain State 38, Ohio 10