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As the FCS playoffs continue with the Round of 16 this weekend, we pause to look back. You see, before the season, someone got the crazy idea to take all 107 FCS vs FBS games in 2015 and put them into five tiers. Tier 1 was the most-likely for an FCS win and Tier 5 was the least-likely.
Overall the FCS had nine wins with 2 no contests versus the FBS in 2015. The two no contests are due to the Stony Brook at Toledo and McNeese State at LSU weather cancellations.
Amazingly, there was at least one FCS win in each of the five pre-season tiers. Yes, even Tier 5.
For the most part, things went as expected, but the FCSers had their share of surprises in 2015, including one result so shocking that it lead to an immediate firing.
With all these games completed and put in the history books, it's time to blow the dust off this and revisit the good and ugly.
Tier 1 - Very Possible
- South Dakota State 41 vs Kansas 38
- Northern Iowa 7 vs Iowa State 31
- Presbyterian 10 vs Charlotte 34
- William & Mary 29 vs Virginia 35
- Liberty 40 vs Georgia State 33
Three of these five games were close contest with two of the FCSers pulling it out. The big hit here is Liberty's win at Georgia State, which seemed to flip the switch for the Panthers as they've gone 4-1 since. The big miss here is Presbyterian at Charlotte. The Niners, despite finishing 2-10 on the season (with their other win being at Georgia State), were able to take care of the Blue Hose.
Tier 2 - Eyebrow Raiser
- New Hampshire 13 vs San Jose State 43
- Illinois State 14 vs Iowa 31
- Maine 3 vs Boston College 24
- Sam Houston State 45 vs Texas Tech 59
- Florida A&M 3 vs South Florida 51
- Youngstown State 37 vs Pittsburgh 45
- Western Illinois 0 vs Illinois 44
- Indiana State 14 vs Purdue 38
- Wofford 38 vs Idaho 41
- Maine 7 vs Tulane 38
- James Madison 48 vs SMU 45
- Portland State 66 vs North Texas 7
Tier 3 - If The Ball Bounces Right...
- Villanova 15 vs Connecticut 20
- UC Davis 17 vs Nevada 31
- Fordham 37 vs Army 35
- Stony Brook vs Toledo (cancelled)
- Weber State 7 vs Oregon State 26
- Portland State 24 vs Washington State 17
- Wagner 16 vs Rice 56
- Presbyterian 7 vs Miami (OH) 26
- Southern Illinois 47 vs Indiana 48
- Gardner-Webb 23 vs South Alabama 33
- Tennessee Tech 24 vs Houston 52
- Charleston Southern 16 vs Troy 44
- Southeastern Louisiana 14 vs Ohio 35
- Idaho State 8 vs UNLV 80
- Austin Peay 7 vs Vanderbilt 47
- North Carolina Central 14 vs FIU 39
- UC Davis 27 vs Hawaii 47
- Bucknell 14 vs Army 21
Tier 4 - Doubtful But Possible
- Elon 3 vs Wake Forest 41
- VMI 36 vs Ball State 48
- Southern Utah 9 vs Utah State 12
- Abilene Christian 13 vs Fresno State 34
- Rhode Island 0 vs Syracuse 34
- Norfolk State 13 vs Rutgers 63
- Richmond 21 vs Maryland 50
- Wofford 10 vs Clemson 49
- Albany 14 vs Buffalo 51
- Howard 0 vs Appalachian State 49
- North Dakota 24 vs Wyoming 13
- Missouri State 7 vs Memphis 63
- Howard 0 vs Boston College 76
- Sacramento State 0 vs Washington 49
- Austin Peay 6 vs Southern Mississippi 52
- Eastern Illinois 0 vs Northwestern 41
- Eastern Kentucky 0 vs NC State 35
- Nicholls State 0 vs Louisiana Monroe 47
- Norfolk State 10 vs Old Dominion 24
- Central Arkansas 8 vs Oklahoma State 32
- Murray State 20 vs Western Michigan 52
- The Citadel 23 vs South Carolina 22
Tier 5 - No Chance
- Tennessee-Martin 3 vs Ole Miss 76
- Colgate 10 vs Navy 48
- Morgan State 7 vs Air Force 63
- Grambling State 14 vs California 73
- Lamar 31 vs Baylor 66
- Bethune-Cookman 0 vs Miami (FL) 45
- Towson 20 vs East Carolina 28
- Alcorn State 6 vs Georgia Tech 69
- Savannah State 13 vs Colorado State 65
- McNeese State vs LSU (cancelled)
- San Diego 3 vs San Diego State 37
- Mississippi Valley State 0 vs New Mexico 66
- Southeast Missouri State 3 vs Missouri 34
- Alabama A&M 10 vs Cincinnati 52
- Prairie View A&M 24 vs Texas State 63
- Southern 15 vs Louisiana Tech 62
- Jackson State 14 vs Middle Tennessee State 70
- South Dakota 0 vs Kansas State 34
- Eastern Washington 42 vs Oregon 61
- Stephen F Austin 7 vs TCU 70
- Jacksonville State 20 vs Auburn 27 (OT)
- Liberty 17 vs West Virginia 41
- Idaho State 0 vs Boise State 52
- Monmouth 10 vs Central Michigan 31
- Murray State 26 vs Northern Illinois 57
- Savannah State 9 vs Akron 52
- Furman 3 vs Virginia Tech 42
- North Carolina Central 0 vs Duke 55
- North Carolina A&T 14 vs North Carolina 53
- Delaware State 13 vs Kent State 45
- Northwestern State 17 vs Louisiana Lafayette 44
- Cal Poly 21 vs Arizona State 35
- Norfolk State 7 vs Marshall 45
- Northwestern State 13 vs Mississippi State 62
- The Citadel 13 vs Georgia Southern 48
- Furman 16 vs UCF 15
- Missouri State 7 vs Arkansas State 70
- Western Carolina 10 vs Tennessee 55
- Northern Arizona 13 vs Arizona 77
- Nicholls State 0 vs Colorado 48
- Delaware 14 vs North Carolina 41
- Incarnate Word 17 vs UTEP 27
- Samford 3 vs Louisville 45
- Eastern Kentucky 27 vs Kentucky 34 (OT)
- Wagner 6 vs BYU 70
- Tennessee-Martin 28 vs Arkansas 63
- Southern 6 vs Georgia 48
- Western Carolina 17 vs Texas A&M 41
- Charleston Southern 6 vs Alabama 56
- Chattanooga 13 vs Florida State 52
We had one hit in the bottom tier. In retrospect, it's not surprising that it's 0-12 UCF. But remember, UCF was a pre-season dark horse to win the American, being voted 4th. Furman went on to finish 4-7 overall.
Most of the games went how you would expect, but there were a couple OVC close calls versus in-state SEC foes. Jacksonville State and Eastern Kentucky had Auburn and Kentucky, respectively, on the ropes but fell in overtime. Other honorable mentions include Eastern Washington's shootout loss to Oregon, Incarnate Word keeping it close at UTEP, Towson near hit at ECU and Cal Poly scaring the bejeezus out of Arizona State.
The big misses go to...welll...everyone else.
Going into 2016, here's an way-too-early early list of FCS vs FBS games that are mighty-interesting.
- Villanova at Pitt
- Richmond at Virginia
- Liberty at Virginia Tech (week before the Battle at Bristol)
- Western Carolina at ECU
- Liberty at SMU
- South Dakota State at Iowa State
- Eastern Kentucky at Ball State
- Sam Houston State at New Mexico
- Sacramento State at Fresno State
- Cal Poly at Nevada
- Portland State at San Jose State
- Portland State as Washington
- Eastern Washington at Washington State
- Incarnate Word at Texas State
- McNeese State at UL-Lafayette