It's Week 9 of the college football season and teams are deep into conference play. A team like Tulane is just trying to find something to hang its hat on, while a bunch like the Memphis Tigers want to prove they're for real.
We all know this Saturday's game is going to be a rout. Allow us to tell you why you should take Memphis and the points if you're so inclined to be a degenerate this weekend.
Tulane Green Wave at Memphis Tigers
Date: Saturday, October 31
Time: 6 p.m. CDT
Location: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tenn.)
TV: CBS Sports Network
Betting Line: Memphis -31
Records: Tulane 2-5 (1-3); Memphis 7-0 (3-0)
All-Time Series: Memphis leads 19-11-1
Last Meeting: Memphis 38, Tulane 7 (Nov. 15, 2014)
Memphis Will Win, But Unlikely Cover
Tulane, nearly by definition, is a trap game for Memphis. The Green Wave will come to town just before Memphis faces a slate of Navy, at Houston, and at Temple. With that said, you should likely still take Memphis and the points.
The Tigers have been dominate so far this season offensively. The Paxton Lynch lead offense averages 49 points per game and have scored over 40 points in 5 of their 7 victories. Expect no different on Saturday. Memphis will have no trouble shredding a Tulane defense that gives up almost 40 a game.
Memphis has struggled on defense this season, specifically pass defense. Two factors should aid the Tigers pass defense on Saturday. Currently there is a 90% chance of rain for the weekend in Memphis. This could limit Tulane to run the ball against a solid Memphis run defense. Also, reports surfaced today that Tulane starting quarterback Tanner Lee could be out for the game as could backup Devin Powell. This would force the Green Wave to start Jordy Joseph. Double whammy for the Green Wave passing attack.
Expect Justin Fuente to have his Tigers focused and ready. The Tigers should have a record of 8-0 as of Sunday morning and should continue to climb the polls during this historic Memphis season
Why Tulane Has No Chance of Covering
First you'll say, "Tyler, it's a big spread." And I'll concede that point.
Then you'll say, "Unless a team is a juggernaut, 31 points is a tough cover." And I'll agree again.
But you need to look at the stats.
Here is how Memphis fared against double-digit (or close to double-digit) spreads this year.
- 24-point favorite versus Missouri State — Won 63-7
- 12-point favorite at Kansas — Won 55-23
- 10.5-point underdog to Ole Miss — Won 37-24
- 9.5-point favorite (run with it) at Tulsa — Won 66-42
Just for comparisons sake, here's Tulane.
- 33-point underdog at Georgia Tech — Lost 65-10
- 14.5-point underdog at Temple — Lost 49-10
- 21-point underdog to Houston — Lost 42-7
- 25-point underdog at Navy — Lost 31-14
Do you see a common thread here? The Tigers are 4-0 ATS while the Green Wave is 1-3 (covered against Navy).
If Tulane loses by less than 31 points on Saturday night, it will be a miracle — mainly because Curtis Johnson's team can't score. The Green Wave punched in a very late touchdown last week at Navy to make that game more respectable than it was and there is a chance Tulane will be without both its first-string quarterback (Tanner Lee) and its second-string quarterback (Devin Powell). The Green Wave couldn't move the ball with them in the lineup, so without them? About that.
Chances of this being a rout are astronomically high.
Chris James (Memphis Beat Writer): Memphis 51, Tulane 23
Tyler Mayforth (Tulane Beat Writer): Memphis 45, Tulane 10